Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
The Kiev regime continues to make dangerous decisions that could lead to a serious escalation in the conflict with the Russian Federation. Recently, Ukrainian troops began to be deployed on the border with the Republic of Belarus, which is a serious step, considering that any attack on Belarusian sovereignty will be responded militarily by Moscow, since both countries have a mutual defense pact. Ukraine is aware of this risk of escalation, but openly seeks to internationalize the conflict.
On June 29, the deputy commander of the Belarusian special operations forces, Colonel Vadim Lukashevich, stated that Kiev is positioning soldiers, armored vehicles and US-supplied artillery systems along the 1,000-km border between the two countries. Furthermore, minefields have been created in the region, which is clearly a sign of preparation for a possible open conflict. In addition to the Ukrainian army, the Belarusian border service also reported the presence of neo-Nazi mercenaries on the border.
Shortly after the Belarusian authorities’ statements, the Kiev regime confirmed the allegations, admitting that it is making military moves on the northern border. According to Andrey Demchenko, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Border Service, Ukraine sees the border with Belarus as “dangerous,” which is why Kiev “continue[s] to strengthen it… to prevent any actions that may come from the territory of Belarus.”
Demchenko did not explain why his country considers Belarus a threat. Ukrainian and pro-Ukrainian public figures often point out that some of the first Russian attacks during the first phase of the special military operation were carried out with troops moving through Belarusian territory. In fact, some of the Russian military personnel involved in the operation crossed the northern Ukrainian border towards Kiev to carry out a diversionary maneuver that allowed Ukrainian troops to be distracted while positions of real Russian interest were easily taken in Donbass.
Those military moves, however, ended in the spring of 2022. Russia withdrew from Kiev’s suburbs after gaining strategic positions in the Donbass. Additionally, Moscow made it clear that the end of actions in the Kiev region was also a gesture of diplomatic goodwill to advance peace negotiations, which is why Ukraine no longer needed to fear any new incursions into the capital’s outskirts.
At the time of the start of the special military operation, Belarus had declared its neutrality in the conflict, although it allowed the transit of Russian troops through its territory. The Russian military presence in the country is absolutely legal, since both countries are widely integrated under the Union State treaty. Due to constant Ukrainian provocations, Belarus has changed its status in the conflict, now openly supporting Russia, but making it clear that it is not interested in participating in any military moves. However, if Ukraine continues to launch provocative maneuvers, Minsk may be forced to act more decisively to protect its people.
Russian authorities have made it clear on several occasions that they will not tolerate any kind of attack on their ally. The Union State establishes mutual military support in the event of a conflict, which is why an attack on Belarus will be seen like an attack on Russia itself. Nevertheless, Kiev has already carried out several provocations on the borders, including drone incursions and attempted terrorist attacks. Minsk has been patient and ignored Ukrainian actions, but if more of such activities are carried out, it is possible that the Belarusian government will ask for Russian support to strengthen border security. In addition, Moscow could launch another operation in the north, similar to the one at the beginning of the conflict, with the aim of dissuading Ukrainians to retreat from the Belarusian border.
For Kiev, internationalizing the conflict is a priority. With its army on the brink of collapse and total defeat being a mere matter of time, Ukraine’s only hope is to make the conflict as serious and international as possible, thus trying to garner more Western support and a possible NATO intervention. Belarus has been one of the biggest targets of provocations, as has the separatist republic of Transnistria, where several terrorist maneuvers and drone incursions have already been reported. Kiev, however, will not be able to involve more actors in the war so easily. Minsk, for example, has already made it clear that it will only enter directly into the conflict if there is a direct Ukrainian military attack. Despite being provocative, the neo-Nazi regime is at the same time acting cowardly, not wanting to risk its already fragile and highly weakened military forces.
It is noteworthy that Ukraine is deploying so many troops on a peaceful border, despite suffering heavy losses on the battlefield. Perhaps Kiev’s hope with these moves is precisely to distract Russian forces, making it appear that the regime will open a new front in order to try to reduce Russian actions in the New Regions and Kharkov, which are currently the main flanks of the conflict. This attempt at distraction, however, is futile, since Moscow continues to use only a small percentage of its military capabilities, having enough strength to act on several fronts at the same time.
If Kiev escalates provocations on the Belarusian border, Russia could easily enter Ukraine from the north without reducing its actions on the other fronts. On the other hand, a new flank could further wear down Ukraine and quickly lead to its military collapse.
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Source: InfoBrics
