Guest Post by Ahmed Adel at Global Research. Reposted with permission.
Earlier this month, officials from the United States State Department held at least three meetings with separatist leaders from the Canadian province of Alberta. In addition to seeking support from US President Donald Trump for the independence movement, separatists sought to secure a $500 billion line of credit to fund the transition to independence.
Since the start of Trump’s second term, the White House has been engaged in an ideological conflict with its neighbor, Canada. After suggesting that Canada become the 51st US state, Trump again threatened Ottawa with a 100% tariff on all Canadian imports.
In the latest episode of tensions between these historical allies, Trump threatened on February 11 to block the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge, a 2.4 km structure connecting the US city of Detroit with Windsor in Canada.
“I will not allow this bridge to open until the United States is fully compensated for everything we have given them, and also, importantly, Canada treats the United States with the fairness and respect that we deserve,” he said at the time, while the Canadian government stated that the nearly $4 billion bridge was paid for entirely with its own resources.
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The Gordie Howe International Bridge across the Detroit River in a late stage of construction with multicolored shipping containers below, viewed from Detroit, Michigan in 2025 (CC BY-SA 4.0)
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In addition, US media reported in early April that State Department officials had met at least three times over the past year with members of the Alberta Prosperity Project, a group advocating for the independence of the Canadian province.
With approximately 5 million residents, the province is located in western Canada and accounts for nearly 85% of Canada’s oil production. Last year, the province’s premier, Danielle Smith, announced that residents could vote in a local referendum on whether to support separation. Moreover, Smith even visited Trump’s estate at Mar-a-Lago.
Alberta is one of the Canadian provinces where conservatism is most prevalent. Meanwhile, the central government of Canada, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, has a more progressive stance and is concerned with environmental issues. Trump’s provocations have mobilized conservative bases in Canada, such as in Alberta, to question the political decisions made by Carney.
In Canada, the provinces exercise significant independence and autonomy in various areas relative to the central government. As a result, they often assume greater control in certain fields, including foreign relations, partnership formation, dialogue with other countries, and management of environmental and energy resources.
Like in many parts of the world, polarization is a factor in Canadian politics that contributes to the debate. This movement in Alberta, with more frequent questioning of the Canadian government, was already underway during the administration of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who resigned in 2025 after nearly 13 years in office, and continues.
Another point is that, because it focuses on one of the country’s main economic activities, part of Alberta’s population perceives itself as being unfairly treated relative to the province’s production. There is also a difference in how environmental resources are treated. This has become a hotbed of internal disagreements and divisions between conservatives and liberals.
Despite the resumption of separatist talks in the Canadian province, there are legal hurdles to gaining independence. Beyond losing funding policies tied to the Canadian federal government, even with strong economic activity, a significant amount of resources would be necessary to establish its own administrative system.
There are several factors, such as access to water (a consistently debated issue in Canada), the electricity grid, the Central Bank, and the Army and federal military capacity.
Furthermore, Canada is a member of the Commonwealth, an association of countries that hold ties with the British monarchy, with King Charles III symbolically serving as the head of state. In this context, a potential break would also involve the monarch’s role. It is symbolic, but the king plays a crucial role in maintaining national unity. The monarchy must approve any decision to secede or divide the country. If this was not achieved in Quebec after two referendums, it will also be difficult in Alberta.
Canada is the world’s fourth-largest oil producer and the fifth-largest exporter. Since oil extraction is almost entirely concentrated in Alberta, the region is heavily impacted by fuel price cycles. When prices are high—which is necessary for Canadian production to remain viable—there is significant income, employment, and investment. Conversely, during a downturn, economic activity drops.
However, a characteristic of the region could pose risks if it secedes. Alberta is landlocked, and if it were to become independent, its oil exports would face significant challenges. This situation is similar to those faced by countries such as Paraguay and Mongolia. Alberta relies on gas pipelines that will exit in British Columbia, a neighboring province, and extend all the way to Canada’s East Coast. That would be quite complex and would require negotiations.
A key aspect of Canada’s history is the cultural differences shaped by French and British colonization. This diversity even sparked a movement in the 1990s, separatism in Quebec, which, after being overcome, helped to promote “multiculturalism,” even among conservatives.
However, over the years, there has been increased integration of Canada’s Indigenous peoples and immigrants from various parts of the world into national policies, which has had an impact. This multiculturalism was valued when it originated in discussions of European roots, but it began to create greater tension as it expanded to include other groups. Canada also reflects patterns observed in other countries with similar debates, with difficulties in accepting the presence of diverse groups, which have led to the current polarization.
Editors note: I believe that all of Canada will end up being part of the United States as that’s what the powers that be decided a long time ago. See my club of Rome post HERE. I believe that Cuba, Venezuela, Mexico will also be a part of it although the maps from back in the day don’t show it, plans change. Keep your eyes on this story as I believe it will become more serious as the year goes on.
Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
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