Category Archives: USA

Alexa Predicts WW3 Start Date, Iran Hit Multiple Times as Media is Silent and Ukraine War Escalates

All of that and more is in today’s video report. The links are below.


General predicts war with China by 2025

British Army is a Mess

Low Yield Blast Over Germany

Pentagon Wants to Send F16s to Ukraine

Attacks in Iran

Alexa WW3 Germany

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Pentagon’s prediction of ‘inevitable’ conflict with China in 2025 shows war is America’s primary ‘export commodity’

Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

For a country constantly chest-thumping about the size of its economy, the United States is remarkably over-reliant on one form of “export” – war. For decades, the American-led political West used proxy wars to hurt its geopolitical adversaries. While most of these weren’t a direct existential threat to US rivals and were relatively limited in scope, recent years brought a major shift to this strategic approach.

Washington DC has become more bellicose than at any point in its history, aggressively attacking the very heartlands of its opponents. In the case of Russia and China, the only reason America isn’t directly attacking either of the superpowers is their ability to immediately “return the favor“. And yet, the US keeps fanning up conflicts that are pushing the world ever closer toward another global conflict.

Ukraine and Taiwan are the two most prominent examples of America’s strategy of “accelerated escalation”, obviously designed to cause “irrational decision-making” in both Moscow and Beijing, according to the Pentagon-funded RAND Corporation. With Ukraine reaching a boiling point and Russia forced to intervene, Washington DC is determined to do the same with China in Taiwan. In recent years, top American officials, including several military commanders, have been warning about the “inevitability of war with China”.

However, the latest statement is quite concerning, issued in the form of a memo by an active four-star general and circulated with an official order. This is particularly dangerous, especially when taking into account the fact that the general took the step of conveying it through the official chain of command. According to NBC News, General Mike Minihan sent it to his subordinate officers:

“A four-star Air Force general sent a memo on Friday to the officers he commands that predicts the U.S. will be at war with China in two years and tells them to get ready to prep by firing ‘a clip’ at a target, and ‘aim for the head’. In the memo sent Friday and obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, said, ‘I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.'”

According to various sources, the US Air Force general commands approximately 50,000 US servicemen and nearly 500 planes, making his comments all the more concerning. This is particularly true when taking into account that USAF is in direct control of two arms of America’s thermonuclear triad – its land-based ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) and nuclear-armed strategic bombers.

Perhaps the most alarming part of the grisly prediction is that it instructed commanders under him to “consider their personal affairs and whether a visit should be scheduled with their servicing base legal office to ensure they are legally ready and prepared.” Minihan claims this is because China is allegedly “determined to make a move” against its breakaway island province of Taiwan within the next two years and that this would trigger a direct US military response.

He further called for “a fortified, ready, integrated, and agile Joint Force Maneuver Team ready to fight and win inside the first island chain.” Minihan also issued an order that all steps in preparation for war with China were to be reported to him directly by February 28. As to why he thinks this is “inevitable” by 2025, NBC claims he stated the following:

“Minihan said in the memo that because both Taiwan and the U.S. will have presidential elections in 2024, the U.S. will be ‘distracted,’ and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity to move on Taiwan.”

The wording is quite concerning, especially when coming from a high-level military commander. General Minihan directed all Air Mobility Command personnel to “fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head.” Using such phrases when talking about the “coming war” with a nuclear-armed China is unwise, to say the least, not to mention the complete disregard for the most basic diplomatic etiquette. Additionally, China’s conventional capabilities are very different in comparison to just a decade ago. Beijing has invested heavily in technological advances that rival or even surpass America’s, particularly hypersonic weapons, in which Washington DC significantly lags behind.

Still, China has spent decades trying to resolve the Taiwan issue peacefully, especially through close economic ties with the island, but the US has been undermining these efforts, particularly in recent years. Beijing’s attempts to achieve nonviolent political reunification with Taiwan have been severely compromised by American arms deliveries, with Taipei spending dozens of billions on weapons, most of which haven’t even been delivered due to the current US focus on Ukraine. China has been warning Washington DC against fomenting the independence ambitions of its breakaway island province. However, the US hasn’t only ignored this, but it seems it’s already planning yet another war with another superpower.

At what point does NATO stop arming Kiev regime?

Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

Almost anyone with a basic capability to process information has noticed a pattern in the relationship between the political West and its favorite Neo-Nazi puppet regime – Kiev asks for something, the United States, European Union and NATO “categorically deny” they would ever deliver such weapons in order to “avoid antagonizing Russia” and then a few weeks later (at most) there’s a “sudden change of heart”.

This rather comical back and forth started even before Russia launched its counteroffensive, when NATO provided thousands of ATGMs (anti-tank guided missiles) and MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems) to Kiev. Since then, the scope of so-called “lethal aid” has expanded dramatically.

It would seem the same is true regarding the recently announced delivery of Western-made heavy tanks which were first denied and then approved just days later. Mere hours after the political West confirmed this, the Neo-Nazi junta once again started insisting on fighter jets. In a statement for Reuters, Yuriy Sak, currently serving as an adviser to Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov (now exposed for his involvement in a massive corruption scandal), said that the Kiev regime will keep pushing for the delivery of Western-made jets to replace its dwindling fleet of Soviet-era aircraft.

“The next big hurdle will now be the fighter jets,” Sak said, adding: “Every type of weapon we request, we needed yesterday. We will do everything possible to ensure Ukraine gets fourth-generation fighter jets as soon as possible.”

The “fourth-generation fighter jets” request also includes US-made F-16 fighters that have been at the top of the Neo-Nazi junta’s wish list at least since mid-March last year when Volodymyr Zelensky implored the US Congress to send jets to help “close the sky”. After the request proved to be quite unpopular with the American public, the Kiev regime frontman was instructed to “tone it down” as this boils down to enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. This would essentially mean direct armed confrontation between NATO and Russia, further inevitably leading to a world-ending thermonuclear exchange.

And yet, the mainstream propaganda machine is once again preparing its audiences for the eventual delivery of advanced combat aircraft to the Kiev regime. For instance, The Hill admitted that “Western fighter jets and longer-range artillery units, which would allow Ukraine to strike Russian forces deeper in occupied territory, will likely be the next debate for NATO.” If the aforementioned pattern continues, this will be yet another step toward uncontrollable escalation and the proxy conflict turning into a fully-fledged war. The Neo-Nazi junta is perfectly aware that its so-called “begmanding” approach is working and continues insisting on heavier and more advanced weapons.

“They didn’t want to give us heavy artillery, then they did. They didn’t want to give us HIMARS systems, then they did. They didn’t want to give us tanks, now they’re giving us tanks,” Sak boasted, further stating: “If we get them, the advantages on the battlefield will be just immense. It’s not just F-16s: fourth generation aircraft, this is what we want… …Apart from nuclear weapons, there is nothing left that we will not get.”

Given the pattern of incessant escalation, Yuriy Sak’s concluding remarks are quite alarming and could indicate that the Kiev regime never gave up on its quest to acquire WMDs (weapons of mass destruction). Given the sheer magnitude of the Neo-Nazi junta’s clinical Russophobia, fanned up to a hatred of genocidal proportions at this point, any such statement will surely be taken very seriously in Moscow. Despite these psychotically disturbing comments, the political West continues to expand its support for such extremist puppet regimes. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby stated there are “constant discussions” with Kiev officials on what they need, adding that he “can’t blame the Ukrainians for wanting more and more systems”.

“It’s not the first time they’ve talked about fighter jets, but I don’t have any announcements to make on that front,” Kirby said.

Again, here we see the same back-and-forth pattern of the political West’s supposed “reluctance” with a “no” becoming “we’ll see” or “maybe” only to then be announced as “we have no choice due to Russia’s unprovoked aggression” at some point.

Unfortunately, debate on this disturbing issue is virtually completely absent from the public discourse. The blame for everything happening in Ukraine is simply cast on Moscow and any attempt to question this is immediately shut down. Even the question of whether Western-made tanks can actually help the Kiev regime forces might be “problematic” and the ones asking it run the risk of being labeled as supposedly “pro-Russian”. This nullifies even the slightest chance of a public debate on whether the political West should reassess its belligerence toward a nuclear-armed superpower, one which has shown remarkable restraint thus far. However, as Russian officials said so many times before, Moscow’s patience is not an endless resource.

Kiev’s crimes could be revealed by its own agents

Lucas Leiroz, researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.

The confidentiality of Kiev’s data is threatened by its own agents. Now, a notorious Australian TV star who became a mercenary in Ukraine is blackmailing the regime, claiming she could leak data that would seriously damage the public image of the Ukrainian government. Indeed, as internal conflicts of interest arise in Ukraine, extortion becomes commonplace.

According to the Daily Mail, Emese Fajk, a famous Australian TV star who participated in the reality show “The Block”, is now threatening Ukrainian authorities searching for personal advantage. The media agency made an extensive report exposing details of Fajk’s life. The star is accused of several financial crimes in Australia and is now allegedly committing illicit acts in Ukraine as well. Afraid of being kicked out of the country or handed over to Australian authorities, Fajk said she would release sensitive data about Kiev’s forces. However, her words were secretly recorded by Ukrainian intelligence agents and later published by the Daily Mail.

On the tapes, Fajk talks to another mercenary soldier, revealing how she threatened to reveal information about Kiev during a meeting with Ukrainian general Andrey Ordinovich, who was using the pseudonym Zeus. She says that she discovered that there was a plan to deport her, which is why she decided to “go public” revealing everything she knew. Fajk ascended to an important position among the pro-Ukrainian mercenaries, becoming the troops’ communications director. She is accused of having stolen money that was meant to buy humanitarian aid for combat units.

With legal problems in Australia, the possibility of being deported obviously did not sound pleasant to her, leading her to use the tactic of blackmail against her superiors. She clarified in conversations that she has no personal issues against Andrey Ordinovich and that she does not consider him a criminal, but reinforced that she would publish all the information she has to the media if something were done against her.

“As it turned out, they wanted to deport me for desertion and [orders were given] to terminate my contract (…) My only luck was that before this I spoke to Zeus, and they couldn’t touch me. I told Zeus if I’m not coming back to this thing, I’m going to go public on everything I know and why I’m being removed. (…) I told him, ‘it’s not a threat against you, it’s nothing personal against you, but I will go public’. So I’ve been almost kicked out, people talking s**t has consequences (…) He’s protecting me, because he knows I know everything and he knows that I’m going to keep my mouth shut, he knows it right now (…) Zeus is not personally involved, he’s not dirty, he’s a super stand-up guy, but he understands that if I go out and I start talking about everything I know and everything I’ve seen in the army and how spineless people are, it’s going to burn the army to the ground”, she said.

Fajk even made a few mentions about the specific sensitive content she could leak. The Australian mercenary commented on cases of corruption and mistreatment of foreigners. According to her, if the information was published in the media, the Ukrainian army would suffer so many investigations that it would certainly “fall”.

“Like, imagine if the Kyiv Independent (newspaper) published an article on everything I know, everything I know would be very damaging for the army and for Ukraine if it became public knowledge. (…) The corruption, the s**t going missing, the treatment foreigners get… if I start talking about this the army is going to fall apart with all the internal investigations that [would] have to be started”, she added.

Indeed, these are the consequences of Kiev’s irresponsible policy of accepting foreign mercenaries. If Emese Fajk’s personal history were investigated in depth, it would be possible to observe her past crimes and thus act preemptively in order to prevent a criminal from reaching important positions in the ranks of the country. However, the Ukrainian desperation to accumulate troops and weapons to wage war against Russia sometimes makes the country’s authorities to act irrationally and anti-strategically, generating serious problems for the military administration.

Before enlisting to fight in Ukraine, Fajk had already fled Australia to live in Portugal, as she was about to be arrested on Australian soil due to serious charges of corruption and financial fraud. The very fact of choosing to volunteer to defend Kiev appears to have been a tactic to evade the scrutiny and deportation that would surely happen if she remained in Portugal.

In Ukraine, Fajk became a kind of wartime top model, regularly appearing in propaganda photos and videos and helping to raise funds for the Ukrainian government with her TV star image. It was precisely this “efficiency” that led her to be promoted to an important administrative position, where Fajk, quite predictably, resumed to her financial crimes.

However, Fajk’s attitude of threatening her superiors may have been risky for her safety. If something were to happen against her, it would not be the first time that Kiev has taken drastic measures to prevent its own agents from leaking sensitive data. The murder of the surrendered neo-Nazi prisoners of Azovstal was a clear example of how the Neo-Nazi regime acts to prevent information leakage. So far, Fajk has managed to stay safe, but, knowing the practices of the regime she chose to defend, it does not seem to be advantageous for her to remain on Ukrainian soil after intimidating local authorities.

You can follow Lucas on Twitter and Telegram.

Wars and Rumors of War 1-24-23

Russia, Iran, Israel and NATO are all part of today’s war report. Links will be below.

Situation for Kiev is Very Difficult

Russia Preparing to end the war while the Pentagon wants to prolong it

Russia Boots Estonian Ambassador

Ukraine Losing Hundreds of troops per day

NATO Tanks going to Ukraine

US Will allow F16s to go to Ukraine

Poland Insists on Germany Releasing Tanks

Russian Air Defenses Moscow

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Poland claims Germany will face international isolation if it does not send tanks to Ukraine

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher

Germany contends with increasing pressure and scrutiny from its so-called European Union and NATO allies to deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine. However, a fake narrative is also being constructed that Berlin is an international pariah, so-much-so, that it could even face international isolation for not sending the tanks.

“Germany will be in international isolation if it does not allow Leopard tanks to be sent to Ukraine,” Polish Vice Chancellor Arkadiusz Mularczyk said to Polskie Radio. “It must be understood that Germany, by not accepting the shipment of tanks to Ukraine, will find itself in international isolation. If it continues with this position, its position will be very weak.”

This is of course a ridiculous notion since it is actually Poland, and the wider European Union, who are in the global minority of sending weapons to Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia.

The expression of willingness by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on January 22 to approve the shipment of Leopard tanks to Ukraine from other countries is the result of major pressure, including from Poland and the Baltic republics, but especially from the UK and the US.

Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Przydacz stressed Warsaw’s call for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to take a position on the supply of Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

“In the legal-formal sense the position of the foreign minister should be sufficient, but taking into account how the discussion inside Germany looks, we would probably have more confidence that the declaration of consent would be considered positive, if this position were also presented by Chancellor Scholz,” Przydacz told Polskie Radio.

Earlier, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, in an interview to Polsat, stated that Warsaw is ready to send German Leopard tanks to Ukraine without permission from Berlin. He stressed that Poland is ready to form a coalition for the supply of tanks to Ukraine without the participation of Germany if the latter does not approve the shipment of its tanks to Kiev.

On January 21, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius declared that NATO countries and their allies failed to reach a consensus on the supply of German tanks to Kiev but that Berlin will study its possibility.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov previously warned that any arms shipment to Kiev will become a legitimate target for the Russian military. At the same time, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov commented that the attempts to saturate Ukraine with weapons will negatively impact the situation and negotiations.

Senior NATO officials met on January 20 at a German military base to discuss — unsuccessfully — a possible new shipment of heavy weapons to Kiev, an issue that has become increasingly acrimonious as time progresses.

For his part, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called on his allies to deepen their support for Ukraine, stressing that “this is not a moment to slow down.”

“It’s time to dig deeper. The Ukrainian people are watching us. The Kremlin is watching us. And history is watching us. So we won’t let up. And we won’t waver in our determination to help Ukraine defend itself from Russia’s imperial aggression,” he added.

However, it is recalled that Washington’s request comes at a time when Germany is refusing to send Leopard tanks to Kiev. Berlin, for its part, has said it will not send tanks unless the US also sends its M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

Germany is facing an immense economic and energy crisis and does not want problems with Russia to deepen. If Germany sends tanks to Ukraine, the country would be even more involved, a prospect it does not want since Russia is a fellow European country that it must deal with, unlike the US which has an entire ocean of separation.

Although Germany has the power to veto any decision to export its Leopard tanks, it has sought a conditional agreement with the US, Reuters reported. According to CNN, the controversy between the two countries occurs in the midst of a much broader debate about whether or not it is a good idea to equip Ukraine with more sophisticated and powerful weapons.

The positions of both countries have generated all kinds of reactions. For example, we recall that Morawiecki asserted that Poland could deliver its Leopard tanks to Ukraine without waiting for German permission.

“We have agreed with our Ukrainian friends and also with our Western European partners that we will hand over these tanks together. The permit is already a secondary issue, we will get it quickly or else we will act as we see fit,” he said to Polsat.

The Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, indicated that the intentions of several Western countries to send Ukraine more weapons are with the aim of “raising the stakes” and will only escalate the conflict.

In this sense, the reluctance to increase weapon deliveries to Ukraine could be interpreted as a sign that Germany wants to re-establish some of the dialogue it lost with Moscow after the departure of Angela Merkel. This is obviously something that Washington categorically does not want to occur.  Although the US can count on other European Union countries to arm Ukraine, particularly Poland, no country besides France has the political, industrial, and military power of Germany.

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Russia preparing new plan to end war while Pentagon wants it ‘well into 2024’

Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

In the last several months, the Russian military has been conducting intensive training for approximately 300,000 newly mobilized soldiers, in addition to other preparations that would enable it to deliver a final knockout punch and end hostilities in Ukraine. The stakes are now being raised even higher with Army General Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, assuming the overall command of Russia’s counteroffensive against NATO’s “quasi-Barbarossa”. The move clearly implies that the Russian military is intent on achieving greater coordination and that it’s focusing much of its conventional capabilities to put the final nail in the coffin of the Neo-Nazi project in Ukraine.

Expectedly, the political West’s mainstream propaganda machine is presenting this change as the supposed failure of General Sergei Surovikin, resulting in his apparent replacement due to perceiving battlefield setbacks. However, quite conveniently, they are withholding critically important information, such as the fact that the Russian special military operation in Ukraine is now expanding in scope and magnitude, making it virtually impossible for Surovikin to coordinate the entire endeavor all by himself. For that reason, Moscow has decided to employ four of its top commanders and give them command of various operational sectors, with General Gerasimov at the helm of this expanded operation.

Apart from Russia’s Chief of the General Staff, three other top-ranking Russian military officers are directly taking part in commanding Moscow’s troops engaged in Ukraine — Army General Oleg Salyukov and Colonel General Alexei Kim, in addition to General Surovikin himself, now assuming the positions of General Gerasimov’s deputies, with special tasks within the enlarged scope of the special military operation. With a force of well over half a million men, supported by the Russian Aerospace Forces and Navy firing hundreds of long-range cruise missiles and swarms of drones, the Kiev regime is faced with an offensive the scale of which is incomparable to anything seen in decades.

Naturally, the Russian military’s plan for the new offensive in Ukraine is a secret, but the information provided by several sources allows a reasonable estimate as to how it might play out. Head of the Kiev regime’s State Property Fund Rustem Umerov claims that the upcoming offensive will come from three directions. “The attack will come from the north, [from] across the Belarusian border, from Russian strongholds in eastern Ukraine and from the south,” Umerov stated, without citing any sources or intelligence. The claim comes approximately a week after CIA chief William Burns visited Kiev and apparently warned Volodymyr Zelensky about Russia’s “impending offensive”.

The possibility of an all-out Russian offensive from three directions certainly shouldn’t be excluded. However, it’s also in the interest of the Russian military to maintain at least some element of surprise and deny the Kiev regime forces the ability to accurately predict its course of action. It’s a strong possibility that the Eurasian giant might decide to take control of the entire left-bank Ukraine, which would require offensive operations in at least three sectors, the northeast (toward Chernigov), east (toward Kharkov) and south (toward Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk). All the while, troops deployed in the Donbass are expected to maintain pressure and tie in as many Kiev regime forces as possible, which eventually could result in the encirclement and final elimination of these units.

The success of such an operation would result in irrecoverable losses for the Neo-Nazi junta and possibly even end the conflict or at least wipe out Kiev’s overall fighting capability, limiting it to militia troops incapable of any maneuvers or large-scale movement necessary to stop further Russian advance. Meanwhile, many of the regime’s forces would be tied in expecting Russian advance from the north, which may or may not happen. And while it’s impossible to say how likely this scenario is, such shaping up of the battlefield can certainly be expected from the Russian military, as this would enable it to take key areas and further exacerbate the Neo-Nazi junta’s position, forcing it to negotiate on terms favorable to Moscow or even surrender if the battlefield losses become completely unbearable.

Although the mainstream propaganda machine is spinning the narrative about General Surovikin’s alleged “failures”, the Kiev regime’s high command doesn’t share the same blind optimism. Kiev’s chief commander General Valery Zaluzhny is well aware of Gerasimov’s competence, as he himself once described Russia’s top military officer as “the smartest of men”. Realizing the impending consequences of Gerasimov’s appointment as the overall commander of the Russian forces engaged in Ukraine, the Neo-Nazi junta is fuming at its NATO sponsors for not providing more weapons. The political West is now divided on delivering heavy tanks, with Washington DC and Berlin trying to toss the hot potato to each other.

Despite its refusal to commit more advanced heavy armor and repeated insistence that its European allies and vassals do this, the US wants the hostilities to last for as long as possible. During a meeting at the Ramstein airbase in Germany, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said: “From a military standpoint I still maintain that for this year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all, every inch of… Russian-occupied Ukraine.” While NATO pledged more weapons for the Kiev regime, the aforementioned question of delivering heavy tanks was left unanswered. And although it still hasn’t even been a full month this year, the US wants the hostilities to last “well into 2024”, obviously hoping to see at least another year of stalemate, despite mounting casualties of its favorite puppet regime.

Situation for Kiev is “very, very difficult” – US top general

Lucas Leiroz, researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.

While Western journalists insist that Ukraine is “winning” the conflict, experienced military and analysts continue to point to the evident fact that Russia cannot be defeated so easily. In a recent interview, a top US general commented that the situation is very complicated for the Ukrainians, who will have many difficulties to fulfill their promise to “expel” Russian forces from territories already reintegrated into Moscow’s sovereign space.

According to the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, Ukraine will face many problems in order to achieve its military objectives in the current conflict against Russia. He points out that most Western leaders, and even the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, despite the bellicose speech, believe that the resolution of the conflict will be done through diplomatic negotiations instead of by force. Milley seems skeptical of any possibility of Ukrainian success through the military dispute.

Milley also commented on the time it would take to end hostilities. Although some Ukrainian and Western politicians claim that they plan to expel the Russians as soon as possible, he does not believe in the possibility of this process being completed by 2023. The solid positions maintained by the Russian forces in the regions newly integrated into the Federation make it difficult to believe in the possibility of a rapid military reversal strong enough to guarantee Kiev the control of these territories.

“President Biden, President Zelensky, and most of the leaders of Europe have said this war is likely to end in a negotiation (…) From a military standpoint, this is a very, very difficult fight (…) I still maintain that for this year, it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine (…) That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, doesn’t mean it won’t happen. But it’d be very, very difficult”, he said during the interview.

Milley’s views sound realistically. He makes it clear that Ukraine’s weaknesses will not be overcome so easily, despite Western help. The US alone has already sent over 110 billion dollars in military aid to Kiev, providing packages that include heavy weapons, combat vehicles, anti-aircraft systems and over a million artillery shells. Europe and NATO allied nations are also providing everything they can to the Ukrainian neo-Nazi regime. However, Russian military superiority sounds evident, as Moscow celebrates more and more important victories, such as the recent seizures of Soledar and Klescheevka.

There are many factors that explain Russia’s success despite Western aid to Ukraine. Moscow’s focus is on avoiding a war of attrition that needlessly kills Russian soldiers and civilians. For this, there is a strategic direction of the fighting forces to key regions, where the military victory makes viable the cutting of the supply lines of the Ukrainian forces. Also, Russian artillery focuses on big military zones and infrastructure facilities, while parallel troops, such as the private military company “Wagner Group” play the role of infantry force, mainly in urban areas.

On the other hand, Kiev seems to have difficulties in strategically managing the conflict. Despite NATO’s support, the Ukrainian forces, as already reported by several on the ground informants, are marked by disorganization and corruption. Most Western weapons are absolutely new to the Ukrainian soldiers, who do not know how to operate them correctly, often causing damages against their own side.

Furthermore, Ukrainians seem to prioritize territory over human lives, unlike Russians. While Moscow constantly promotes strategic retreats to save lives, Kiev keeps troops in the trenches even when the battles are virtually lost. The result is the death of thousands of soldiers in unnecessary combat. These soldiers are replaced by new fighters, with not enough training and no military experience, resulting in strategic errors and more deaths.

In addition, it is important to mention that since 2014 Kiev deliberately attacks civilians and this has been getting worse as heavy weapons from the West arrive in the country. Much of the equipment imported by Ukraine has been used in demilitarized areas in Donbass for the sole purpose of murdering ethnic Russian civilians, without any military gain, which makes it even more complicated for this Western aid to have any real impact in the conflict.

In fact, Milley’s words just confirm what has already become a constant conclusion among military experts: Kiev is not able to defeat Russia – both because Moscow is militarily stronger and because of the lack of organizational and administrative capacity on the part of the Ukrainians. The possibility of a real military reversal would only happen in a scenario of more direct NATO’s intervention, but in this case the war would certainly escalate to the nuclear level and end without winners.

On the near horizon, only the Russian victory looks like a real scenario. The best to do is to resume the talks, with Kiev fully accepting Russian ceasefire terms. As Milley suggested, Western politicians themselves believe this, but they prefer to continue funding the conflict just to try to destabilize Russia’s strategic environment as much as possible, even if it costs the lives of Ukrainian citizens.

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West hopes to drag Belarus into war with Ukraine

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

The joint exercises between the Belarusian and Russian Air Forces, which are currently being held in Belarus, are of a defensive nature and are a response to the collective threat the two countries face from NATO and neighbouring Ukraine. These exercises are being held at a time when the West is pushing Kiev to open a new front against Belarus, which is of particular importance because Poland is massing troops on its eastern border.

Western countries have significantly increased their provocations by conducting military exercises, concentrating its troops, and amassing heavy weapons near the Russian-Belarusian borders. Just as Russia was drawn into conflict with Ukraine because of the country’s unrelenting willingness to carryout Washington’s demands, even if its contrary to its own interests, the West hopes that Belarus can be drawn into the war in a much deeper way.

The joint air force exercises began on January 16 and will last until February 1. The main goal of the exercises is to increase operational compatibility in joint combat tasks, something of critical importance given the war waging in neighbouring Ukraine, and in which Kiev is being financed by the tens of billions of dollars. None-the-less, it must be noted that the deeper integration of the Russian and Belarusian militaries began long before Moscow launched its special military operation in Ukraine.

These military exercises also raise speculation on whether Belarus will enter the Ukrainian conflict. Belarus does not want to be drawn into the conflict if it can be avoided, but President Alexander Lukashenko will certainly not shy away either if it is necessary.

Kiev finds itself in a conundrum. On the one hand, Kiev hopes that a Belarusian military operation would force a direct Western intervention in the war. However, if Ukraine is to provoke Belarus, it also runs the risk of the Belarusian military pouring into Kiev, Zhitomir and Chernigov oblasts, thus forcing Ukrainian troops and resources from other fronts, and with no guarantee of a western intervention. The West is content with seeing Ukraine destroy itself in the attempt of weakening Russia, and hopes that Belarus can also be drawn into this mess.

It is recalled that Ukrainian Deputy Interior Minister Yevhen Yenin already told the BBC in December that Ukraine would be bolstering its border with Belarus by allocating further armed forces and ammunition, something which could be used more effectively on its battlefronts with Russia.

If Ukraine is to provoke Belarus into conflict in the hope that it will lead to Western intervention, and the West does not directly intervene, it would be a major disaster. It is this risk-reward factor that Kiev is still debating. Kiev already frequently complains about the West’s lacklustre support and it is highly unlikely that the West will begin directly intervening in Ukraine because Belarus also entered the conflict and in this case the main repercussion for Minsk will be more sanction packages.

At the same time, considering the deterioration of the situation on the western borders of Russia and Belarus in October last year, Lukashenko approved the deployment of a joint regional military group. With the aim of strengthening border defences, the total contingent of the Russian military in the joint group is about 9,000 soldiers. According to earlier announcements, the group will include about 170 tanks, about 200 armoured fighting vehicles, and 100 artillery pieces and mortars.

Lukashenko previously warned that the West is pushing Ukraine to open a front against Belarus. It cannot be discounted that NATO and some European countries are considering options for aggression against Belarus.

Apart from bordering Russia, Belarus (with an etymology meaning “White Rus”) is sandwiched between the Russophobic countries – Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Poland is amassing an army on the eastern border with Belarus, while NATO troops are stationed in the Baltic countries. The latest tanks and planes have arrived in the Baltics, suggesting that there are enough weapons to open another front against Belarus.

It is for this reason that joint air force exercises between Belarus and Russia is critical, especially as the Russian Air Force has a high-level of combat readiness and recent experience (when considering the war in Ukraine, Syria since 2015 and Georgia in 2008), something that the pilots of Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics do not have. For this reason, transferring this combat experience to the Belarusians through joint exercises will also improve the defence and security of Russia.

For now, it is unclear whether Kiev will push ahead in forcing Belarus into conflict. It is highly likely that Washington wants Belarus to be dragged into the war but at the same time it seems to be reluctant to directly intervene if Lukashenko gives the order to attack Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been a useful puppet for the US thus far, however, even he must surely know that forcing Belarus to intervene in the war will only create more problems for the struggling Ukrainian military. At the same time, the Kiev regime since 2014 has been in the habit of serving foreign interests rather than their own, and for this reason, as Ukraine is unpredictable, Belarus must also have high combat readiness in case the Ukrainians do instigate provocations.

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