Category Archives: Russia

Alexa Predicts WW3 Start Date, Iran Hit Multiple Times as Media is Silent and Ukraine War Escalates

All of that and more is in today’s video report. The links are below.


General predicts war with China by 2025

British Army is a Mess

Low Yield Blast Over Germany

Pentagon Wants to Send F16s to Ukraine

Attacks in Iran

Alexa WW3 Germany

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At what point does NATO stop arming Kiev regime?

Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

Almost anyone with a basic capability to process information has noticed a pattern in the relationship between the political West and its favorite Neo-Nazi puppet regime – Kiev asks for something, the United States, European Union and NATO “categorically deny” they would ever deliver such weapons in order to “avoid antagonizing Russia” and then a few weeks later (at most) there’s a “sudden change of heart”.

This rather comical back and forth started even before Russia launched its counteroffensive, when NATO provided thousands of ATGMs (anti-tank guided missiles) and MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems) to Kiev. Since then, the scope of so-called “lethal aid” has expanded dramatically.

It would seem the same is true regarding the recently announced delivery of Western-made heavy tanks which were first denied and then approved just days later. Mere hours after the political West confirmed this, the Neo-Nazi junta once again started insisting on fighter jets. In a statement for Reuters, Yuriy Sak, currently serving as an adviser to Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov (now exposed for his involvement in a massive corruption scandal), said that the Kiev regime will keep pushing for the delivery of Western-made jets to replace its dwindling fleet of Soviet-era aircraft.

“The next big hurdle will now be the fighter jets,” Sak said, adding: “Every type of weapon we request, we needed yesterday. We will do everything possible to ensure Ukraine gets fourth-generation fighter jets as soon as possible.”

The “fourth-generation fighter jets” request also includes US-made F-16 fighters that have been at the top of the Neo-Nazi junta’s wish list at least since mid-March last year when Volodymyr Zelensky implored the US Congress to send jets to help “close the sky”. After the request proved to be quite unpopular with the American public, the Kiev regime frontman was instructed to “tone it down” as this boils down to enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine. This would essentially mean direct armed confrontation between NATO and Russia, further inevitably leading to a world-ending thermonuclear exchange.

And yet, the mainstream propaganda machine is once again preparing its audiences for the eventual delivery of advanced combat aircraft to the Kiev regime. For instance, The Hill admitted that “Western fighter jets and longer-range artillery units, which would allow Ukraine to strike Russian forces deeper in occupied territory, will likely be the next debate for NATO.” If the aforementioned pattern continues, this will be yet another step toward uncontrollable escalation and the proxy conflict turning into a fully-fledged war. The Neo-Nazi junta is perfectly aware that its so-called “begmanding” approach is working and continues insisting on heavier and more advanced weapons.

“They didn’t want to give us heavy artillery, then they did. They didn’t want to give us HIMARS systems, then they did. They didn’t want to give us tanks, now they’re giving us tanks,” Sak boasted, further stating: “If we get them, the advantages on the battlefield will be just immense. It’s not just F-16s: fourth generation aircraft, this is what we want… …Apart from nuclear weapons, there is nothing left that we will not get.”

Given the pattern of incessant escalation, Yuriy Sak’s concluding remarks are quite alarming and could indicate that the Kiev regime never gave up on its quest to acquire WMDs (weapons of mass destruction). Given the sheer magnitude of the Neo-Nazi junta’s clinical Russophobia, fanned up to a hatred of genocidal proportions at this point, any such statement will surely be taken very seriously in Moscow. Despite these psychotically disturbing comments, the political West continues to expand its support for such extremist puppet regimes. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby stated there are “constant discussions” with Kiev officials on what they need, adding that he “can’t blame the Ukrainians for wanting more and more systems”.

“It’s not the first time they’ve talked about fighter jets, but I don’t have any announcements to make on that front,” Kirby said.

Again, here we see the same back-and-forth pattern of the political West’s supposed “reluctance” with a “no” becoming “we’ll see” or “maybe” only to then be announced as “we have no choice due to Russia’s unprovoked aggression” at some point.

Unfortunately, debate on this disturbing issue is virtually completely absent from the public discourse. The blame for everything happening in Ukraine is simply cast on Moscow and any attempt to question this is immediately shut down. Even the question of whether Western-made tanks can actually help the Kiev regime forces might be “problematic” and the ones asking it run the risk of being labeled as supposedly “pro-Russian”. This nullifies even the slightest chance of a public debate on whether the political West should reassess its belligerence toward a nuclear-armed superpower, one which has shown remarkable restraint thus far. However, as Russian officials said so many times before, Moscow’s patience is not an endless resource.

Lula proposes BRICS currency, but makes unfriendly comments towards Russia and China

Lucas Leiroz, researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is advancing with his south-south international cooperation projects. However, the direction of these projects seems ambiguous, with unclear intentions. On his latest trip to Argentina and Uruguay, the Brazilian President announced his interest in creating a common currency for Mercosur and the BRICS, replacing the US dollar in international trade. However, at the same time, Lula made unfriendly comments towards Russia and China and showed willingness to align himself with the European Union. The case shows very well the current situation of the Brazilian president, as his government is evidently polarized between two antagonistic political tendencies.

President Lula recently began a trip to Argentina and Uruguay in order to discuss topics of strategic interest. As promised in his electoral campaign, one of his government’s objectives will be to revitalize Mercosur. For this, he showed interest in some bilateral cooperation projects between Brazil and Argentina, such as the building of a gas pipeline to transport shale gas in Argentina. Lula also guaranteed financing for Argentine gas exploration with money from the BNDS – a Brazilian state bank that funds infrastructure and social development initiatives.

Despite this type of dialogue evidently contributing to the improvement of relations between Brazil and Argentina which were very damaged during the Bolsonaro era, there are a number of criticisms against Lula, as the projects seem to be of little interest to Brasilia. The proposed gas pipeline apparently will not pass through the Brazilian territory. So, after the construction, Brazil’s participation in the gas pipeline will end and there will be no more employment opportunities for Brazilian citizens, thus being a short-term cooperation that benefits Argentina more than Brazil.

Obviously, in a country currently affected by so many social and economic problems like Brazil, with historical marks of unemployment and deindustrialization, the initiative to create complex projects that benefit neighboring countries more than the Brazilian population itself would not be welcomed. The political opposition has reacted with fury to the idea of the gas pipeline, which has further worsened the situation of polarization in the country.

However, one of the most interesting points of the events in Argentina was the fact that Lula announced that he plans to create a currency for international trade in Mercosur and the BRICS. The president’s plan appears as another step towards the de-dollarization of the global economy, which is already becoming a trend among emerging powers. In fact, it was previously expected that Brazil would somehow adhere to this trend, since within the BRICS the replacement of the US dollar is advancing significantly.

“If it were up to me, we would always trade with other countries in national currencies, so as not to be dependent on the dollar. Why not make an attempt to create a common currency for MERCOSUR countries or for BRICS countries? (…) I believe that over time, we will come to that. I believe this is necessary because many countries face challenges buying dollars”, he said.

Lula did not provide details about the currency, which makes it difficult to assess whether the project will really benefit the involved countries or whether it has strategic errors. Probably, new discussions about this currency will be made between diplomats and politicians in next few months. However, despite the optimism of this news, at other times Lula showed ambiguity in his alignment with the BRICS nations.

During a press conference in Argentina, Lula was asked by a journalist about his position on Venezuela. As expected, the Brazilian president condemned the sanctions imposed by the US against the country, but, on the other hand, he made hostile comments on Russia to justify his position.

“In the same way that I am against territorial occupation, as Russia did to Ukraine, I am against too much interference in the Venezuelan process”, he stated.

Obviously, Lula’s words are absolutely unsubstantiated. There is no comparison between one situation and another. Venezuela has suffered sanctions due to US interventionism, which does not admit the existence of a sovereign government in Latin America. On the other hand, Russia launched a special military operation to demilitarize and de-nazify Ukraine, liberating territories of ethnically Russian population, and reintegrating them into the Federation through internationally recognized referendums. There was no Russian “occupation” of Ukraine. Furthermore, Russia is also a victim of US sanctions, as well as Venezuela, since the collective West has tried to “isolate” Moscow at the global arena.

And there were more controversial comments from Lula. In Uruguay, the president made it clear that his priority is to negotiate with the European Union and sign an international Mercosur-EU agreement. He emphasized that talks with China should only take place after signing an agreement with the EU, which is absolutely irrational, since China has a much larger economic involvement in Mercosur than the EU.

“It is urgent and extremely important for Mercosur to reach an agreement with the EU (…) We will step up our discussions with the EU and sign this agreement so that we can then discuss a deal between China and Mercosur”, he said.

There is only one way to explain Lula’s ambiguous positions: he is under political pressure from several groups. Some of his team’s members demand an alignment with the EU and the West, as well as criticism against the BRICS. On the other hand, he does not want to ignore his past and try to carry out projects of south-south cooperation, but he seems to make mistakes in the strategic evaluation of these projects.

In fact, in the midst of the geopolitical transition towards multipolarity and Brazilian social chaos, his priorities should be to pacify the country internally and cooperate with Russia and China for the creation of a polycentric world order.

You can follow Lucas on Twitter and Telegram.

Did Germany just officially declare war on Russia?

Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

During a debate at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock bluntly stated that Germany and its allies are at war with Russia. The unexpected admission, although essentially true, is quite shocking given the fact that many Western officials have been insisting they aren’t directly involved in the conflict with Moscow. Baerbock made the statement during a discussion over sending “Leopard 2” heavy tanks to the Kiev regime. Most mainstream media conveniently ignored her words, but numerous experts were alarmed and warned that Berlin just essentially declared war on Russia.

This stands in stark contrast to claims of other German officials who have been extremely careful with their statements for nearly a year, insisting that their country is not directly involved in the Ukrainian conflict and citing uncontrollable escalation as their primary concern. However, this official stance is now in serious question, as one of the country’s top officials just effectively nullified all of their efforts. Annalena Baerbock started her statement at PACE with the following:

“And therefore I’ve said already in the last days – yes, we have to do more to defend Ukraine. Yes, we have to do more also on tanks. But the most important and the crucial part is that we do it together and that we do not do the blame game in Europe, because we are fighting a war against Russia and not against each other.”

Ironically, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his now former defense minister Christine Lambrecht have been accused of being “weak” on arming the Neo-Nazi junta. They have frequently insisted that it would be dangerous to get more directly involved in NATO’s proxy war against Russia. However, it seems that the much more hawkish Baerbock is willing to say the quiet part out loud. Moscow immediately reacted to the comments, with Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova saying this is yet another proof that the political West was planning a war on Russia for quite some time now.

“If we add this to Merkel’s revelations that they were strengthening Ukraine and did not count on the Minsk agreements, then we are talking about a war against Russia that was planned in advance. Don’t say later that we didn’t warn you,” Zakharova said.

Baerbock’s comments come on the heels of nearly a year of direct Russophobic narrative, including openly declared plans for war with Russia. In mid-November, Der Spiegel published leaked German Defense Ministry documents, revealing that the Bundeswehr is preparing for war with Russia. The secret draft titled “Operational guidelines for the Armed Forces” was authored by none other than the German Chief of Staff, General Eberhard Zorn himself. He stressed the need for a “mega-reform” of the German military and clearly identified Russia as an “immediate threat”.

The claim makes little sense, as Germany is now over 1,500 km away from Russia, with Belarus, Poland and Ukraine standing between the two countries. While such assertions made some sense at the height of the (First) Cold War, when the Soviet Union had over half a million soldiers stationed in East Germany alone (in addition to other Warsaw Pact member states), the situation is effectively reversed nowadays. NATO is the one encroaching on Russia’s western borders, with the crawling expansion including coups and other interventions in various Eastern European and post-Soviet states. After decades of this creeping aggression and Moscow’s futile attempts to build a comprehensive partnership with the political West, Russia was forced to launch its counteroffensive.

Back in early March, the German government announced a dramatic increase in defense spending, including a €100 billion budget for the Bundeswehr, essentially double in comparison to 2021. Although this will inevitably put additional pressure on the already struggling German economy, ravaged by the sanctions boomerang from its failed economic siege of Russia, Berlin’s suicidal subservience to Washington DC seems to take precedence. Much of Germany’s prosperity was based on access to cheap Russian energy, now a thing of the past thanks to Berlin’s resurgent Russophobia.

In addition, Germany also uniquely holds historical responsibility on a scale virtually no other country in the world does, especially towards Russia. During the Second World War, it launched a brutal invasion of the Soviet Union, killing nearly 30 million people and destroying virtually everything in its path. Worse yet, after approximately 80 years of denazification in the aftermath of its WWII defeat, Berlin still decided to support the Neo-Nazi junta in Kiev, effectively renouncing its own official postwar political position. This also includes German weapons that are killing Russians, both soldiers and civilians.

Alarmed by the dramatic shift in rhetoric, many in Germany are already pointing out the fact that the country is repeating the same historical mistake by antagonizing Russia. Petr Bystron, an AfD (Alternative for Germany) member of the German Parliament, reminded his colleagues in the Bundestag of the consequences of sending German tanks to fight Russia in Ukraine:

“It’s an interesting approach you’re taking here. German tanks against Russia in Ukraine. By the way, your grandfathers have already tried to do it then with the Melnyks and Banderas [Ukrainian Nazi collaborators during WWII] and what was the result? Untold suffering, millions of deaths on both sides, and in the end, Russian tanks here in Berlin. And two of them are still here, in front of the Bundestag. You should pass by them every morning and remember it!”

Kiev’s crimes could be revealed by its own agents

Lucas Leiroz, researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.

The confidentiality of Kiev’s data is threatened by its own agents. Now, a notorious Australian TV star who became a mercenary in Ukraine is blackmailing the regime, claiming she could leak data that would seriously damage the public image of the Ukrainian government. Indeed, as internal conflicts of interest arise in Ukraine, extortion becomes commonplace.

According to the Daily Mail, Emese Fajk, a famous Australian TV star who participated in the reality show “The Block”, is now threatening Ukrainian authorities searching for personal advantage. The media agency made an extensive report exposing details of Fajk’s life. The star is accused of several financial crimes in Australia and is now allegedly committing illicit acts in Ukraine as well. Afraid of being kicked out of the country or handed over to Australian authorities, Fajk said she would release sensitive data about Kiev’s forces. However, her words were secretly recorded by Ukrainian intelligence agents and later published by the Daily Mail.

On the tapes, Fajk talks to another mercenary soldier, revealing how she threatened to reveal information about Kiev during a meeting with Ukrainian general Andrey Ordinovich, who was using the pseudonym Zeus. She says that she discovered that there was a plan to deport her, which is why she decided to “go public” revealing everything she knew. Fajk ascended to an important position among the pro-Ukrainian mercenaries, becoming the troops’ communications director. She is accused of having stolen money that was meant to buy humanitarian aid for combat units.

With legal problems in Australia, the possibility of being deported obviously did not sound pleasant to her, leading her to use the tactic of blackmail against her superiors. She clarified in conversations that she has no personal issues against Andrey Ordinovich and that she does not consider him a criminal, but reinforced that she would publish all the information she has to the media if something were done against her.

“As it turned out, they wanted to deport me for desertion and [orders were given] to terminate my contract (…) My only luck was that before this I spoke to Zeus, and they couldn’t touch me. I told Zeus if I’m not coming back to this thing, I’m going to go public on everything I know and why I’m being removed. (…) I told him, ‘it’s not a threat against you, it’s nothing personal against you, but I will go public’. So I’ve been almost kicked out, people talking s**t has consequences (…) He’s protecting me, because he knows I know everything and he knows that I’m going to keep my mouth shut, he knows it right now (…) Zeus is not personally involved, he’s not dirty, he’s a super stand-up guy, but he understands that if I go out and I start talking about everything I know and everything I’ve seen in the army and how spineless people are, it’s going to burn the army to the ground”, she said.

Fajk even made a few mentions about the specific sensitive content she could leak. The Australian mercenary commented on cases of corruption and mistreatment of foreigners. According to her, if the information was published in the media, the Ukrainian army would suffer so many investigations that it would certainly “fall”.

“Like, imagine if the Kyiv Independent (newspaper) published an article on everything I know, everything I know would be very damaging for the army and for Ukraine if it became public knowledge. (…) The corruption, the s**t going missing, the treatment foreigners get… if I start talking about this the army is going to fall apart with all the internal investigations that [would] have to be started”, she added.

Indeed, these are the consequences of Kiev’s irresponsible policy of accepting foreign mercenaries. If Emese Fajk’s personal history were investigated in depth, it would be possible to observe her past crimes and thus act preemptively in order to prevent a criminal from reaching important positions in the ranks of the country. However, the Ukrainian desperation to accumulate troops and weapons to wage war against Russia sometimes makes the country’s authorities to act irrationally and anti-strategically, generating serious problems for the military administration.

Before enlisting to fight in Ukraine, Fajk had already fled Australia to live in Portugal, as she was about to be arrested on Australian soil due to serious charges of corruption and financial fraud. The very fact of choosing to volunteer to defend Kiev appears to have been a tactic to evade the scrutiny and deportation that would surely happen if she remained in Portugal.

In Ukraine, Fajk became a kind of wartime top model, regularly appearing in propaganda photos and videos and helping to raise funds for the Ukrainian government with her TV star image. It was precisely this “efficiency” that led her to be promoted to an important administrative position, where Fajk, quite predictably, resumed to her financial crimes.

However, Fajk’s attitude of threatening her superiors may have been risky for her safety. If something were to happen against her, it would not be the first time that Kiev has taken drastic measures to prevent its own agents from leaking sensitive data. The murder of the surrendered neo-Nazi prisoners of Azovstal was a clear example of how the Neo-Nazi regime acts to prevent information leakage. So far, Fajk has managed to stay safe, but, knowing the practices of the regime she chose to defend, it does not seem to be advantageous for her to remain on Ukrainian soil after intimidating local authorities.

You can follow Lucas on Twitter and Telegram.

Wars and Rumors of War 1-24-23

Russia, Iran, Israel and NATO are all part of today’s war report. Links will be below.

Situation for Kiev is Very Difficult

Russia Preparing to end the war while the Pentagon wants to prolong it

Russia Boots Estonian Ambassador

Ukraine Losing Hundreds of troops per day

NATO Tanks going to Ukraine

US Will allow F16s to go to Ukraine

Poland Insists on Germany Releasing Tanks

Russian Air Defenses Moscow

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Why is Russia expanding short-range air defenses around Moscow?

Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

Air defense is one of the key modern military capabilities that provide adequate protection for ground units, helping them retain their combat capabilities. In recent decades, these systems have become increasingly networked and multilayered, giving the defenders a plethora of options to shoot down hostile jets, missiles, drones, etc. More recently, modern militaries have started relying on swarms of well-coordinated drones designed to saturate an area and overwhelm existing air defenses. Only a handful of countries have developed and battle-tested systems against such new offensive weapons.

For well over half a century, Russia has been at the forefront of the development of various SAM (surface-to-air missile) systems and other types of air defenses. What started out as an effort to nullify Western long-range bomber advantage in the aftermath of the Second World War soon turned into a key area of defense strategy without which it’s impossible to imagine modern warfare. By the 1970s, air defenses were no longer only focused on enemy fighter jets or bombers, but also on ballistic missiles and even space assets, both civilian and military (although this divide seems to be blurring by the day, especially when taking into account projects such as the SpaceX’s “Starlink”).

In recent days, the footage taken in Russia shows that short-range air defenses, particularly the now legendary “Pantsir” hybrid SAM-AAA (anti-aircraft artillery) system, are being deployed to protect crucial areas in the capital city of Moscow. Dozens of sources have published both video and photo evidence that a number of “Pantsir-S1” SAM-AAA systems have been placed on top of certain key buildings in Moscow, triggering speculation that Russia is expecting renewed attacks by the Kiev regime forces. It’s quite possible that this also includes defending from long-range Soviet-made drones such as the now infamous Tu-141 “Strizh” that flew nearly 600 km through NATO’s air defenses in Romania, Hungary and Croatia in early March last year.

The 1970s-era jet-powered drone was also used during December attacks against Russian airbases housing strategic bombers/missile carriers. Initial reports suggested that the Kiev regime forces launched the Tu-141, but more recent findings indicate that this isn’t necessarily true for all attacks deep within Russia, with some security experts warning about sabotage attacks (apparently, coordinated by the CIA), including with small drones operated by infiltration teams or even a single sleeper agent. Whichever of the two possibilities is true, the “Pantsir” SAM-AAA system has been proven against both types of attacks, shooting down thousands of drones, missiles, rockets and other weapons in the Middle East and more recently in Ukraine, including the infamous HIMARS.

All this might be the reason behind ramping up Russian air defenses in critically important areas, particularly in the capital city. In addition, the number of exercises involving advanced SAM systems just outside Moscow has also increased dramatically. Over the weekend, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed this in an official statement:

“In the Moscow oblast [region], a training session was held with the personnel of the anti-aircraft missile brigade of the Western Military District on repelling air attacks on important military, industrial and administrative facilities. The combat exercise was centered on the operation of a S-300 anti-aircraft missile system. As they marched, soldiers repelled an attack by a mock enemy sabotage group on a military convoy. Under the cover of a smoke screen, the air defense convoy was able to get out of the attack and continue fulfilling its tasks.”

Russia’s capital is protected by one of the most extensive air defense networks in the world and it also includes systems capable of shooting down ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles), incoming MIRV (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle) warheads, satellites and other space-based assets used by its adversaries. However, this doesn’t make Moscow immune to sabotage attacks involving the aforementioned drones and drone swarms. Sleeper agents operating small drones (military or even commercial) might be able to jeopardize critically important targets, particularly in Moscow, which has an extremely high concentration of institutions of vital significance for Russia, be it the state itself, its military, industrial capacity, etc.

While the country’s capital still hasn’t seen such attacks, this possibility should never be excluded, especially now when the Kiev regime is desperate to gain at least some propaganda wins and get more weapons from the political West to have a chance against Russia’s upcoming offensive. This is particularly true as the Russian military is steadily advancing in the Donbass and more recently in the Zaporozhye oblast (region), in addition to weeks of breakthroughs around the city of Bakhmut/Artyomovsk in the DNR. The Neo-Nazi junta will hopelessly try to respond to any new large-scale operation by Russia and it appears that Moscow is simply preparing for this contingency, especially at the time when the US-led political West is expanding its comprehensive aggression against Russia.

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Poland claims Germany will face international isolation if it does not send tanks to Ukraine

Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher

Germany contends with increasing pressure and scrutiny from its so-called European Union and NATO allies to deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine. However, a fake narrative is also being constructed that Berlin is an international pariah, so-much-so, that it could even face international isolation for not sending the tanks.

“Germany will be in international isolation if it does not allow Leopard tanks to be sent to Ukraine,” Polish Vice Chancellor Arkadiusz Mularczyk said to Polskie Radio. “It must be understood that Germany, by not accepting the shipment of tanks to Ukraine, will find itself in international isolation. If it continues with this position, its position will be very weak.”

This is of course a ridiculous notion since it is actually Poland, and the wider European Union, who are in the global minority of sending weapons to Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia.

The expression of willingness by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on January 22 to approve the shipment of Leopard tanks to Ukraine from other countries is the result of major pressure, including from Poland and the Baltic republics, but especially from the UK and the US.

Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Przydacz stressed Warsaw’s call for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to take a position on the supply of Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

“In the legal-formal sense the position of the foreign minister should be sufficient, but taking into account how the discussion inside Germany looks, we would probably have more confidence that the declaration of consent would be considered positive, if this position were also presented by Chancellor Scholz,” Przydacz told Polskie Radio.

Earlier, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, in an interview to Polsat, stated that Warsaw is ready to send German Leopard tanks to Ukraine without permission from Berlin. He stressed that Poland is ready to form a coalition for the supply of tanks to Ukraine without the participation of Germany if the latter does not approve the shipment of its tanks to Kiev.

On January 21, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius declared that NATO countries and their allies failed to reach a consensus on the supply of German tanks to Kiev but that Berlin will study its possibility.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov previously warned that any arms shipment to Kiev will become a legitimate target for the Russian military. At the same time, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov commented that the attempts to saturate Ukraine with weapons will negatively impact the situation and negotiations.

Senior NATO officials met on January 20 at a German military base to discuss — unsuccessfully — a possible new shipment of heavy weapons to Kiev, an issue that has become increasingly acrimonious as time progresses.

For his part, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called on his allies to deepen their support for Ukraine, stressing that “this is not a moment to slow down.”

“It’s time to dig deeper. The Ukrainian people are watching us. The Kremlin is watching us. And history is watching us. So we won’t let up. And we won’t waver in our determination to help Ukraine defend itself from Russia’s imperial aggression,” he added.

However, it is recalled that Washington’s request comes at a time when Germany is refusing to send Leopard tanks to Kiev. Berlin, for its part, has said it will not send tanks unless the US also sends its M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

Germany is facing an immense economic and energy crisis and does not want problems with Russia to deepen. If Germany sends tanks to Ukraine, the country would be even more involved, a prospect it does not want since Russia is a fellow European country that it must deal with, unlike the US which has an entire ocean of separation.

Although Germany has the power to veto any decision to export its Leopard tanks, it has sought a conditional agreement with the US, Reuters reported. According to CNN, the controversy between the two countries occurs in the midst of a much broader debate about whether or not it is a good idea to equip Ukraine with more sophisticated and powerful weapons.

The positions of both countries have generated all kinds of reactions. For example, we recall that Morawiecki asserted that Poland could deliver its Leopard tanks to Ukraine without waiting for German permission.

“We have agreed with our Ukrainian friends and also with our Western European partners that we will hand over these tanks together. The permit is already a secondary issue, we will get it quickly or else we will act as we see fit,” he said to Polsat.

The Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, indicated that the intentions of several Western countries to send Ukraine more weapons are with the aim of “raising the stakes” and will only escalate the conflict.

In this sense, the reluctance to increase weapon deliveries to Ukraine could be interpreted as a sign that Germany wants to re-establish some of the dialogue it lost with Moscow after the departure of Angela Merkel. This is obviously something that Washington categorically does not want to occur.  Although the US can count on other European Union countries to arm Ukraine, particularly Poland, no country besides France has the political, industrial, and military power of Germany.

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Russia preparing new plan to end war while Pentagon wants it ‘well into 2024’

Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

In the last several months, the Russian military has been conducting intensive training for approximately 300,000 newly mobilized soldiers, in addition to other preparations that would enable it to deliver a final knockout punch and end hostilities in Ukraine. The stakes are now being raised even higher with Army General Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, assuming the overall command of Russia’s counteroffensive against NATO’s “quasi-Barbarossa”. The move clearly implies that the Russian military is intent on achieving greater coordination and that it’s focusing much of its conventional capabilities to put the final nail in the coffin of the Neo-Nazi project in Ukraine.

Expectedly, the political West’s mainstream propaganda machine is presenting this change as the supposed failure of General Sergei Surovikin, resulting in his apparent replacement due to perceiving battlefield setbacks. However, quite conveniently, they are withholding critically important information, such as the fact that the Russian special military operation in Ukraine is now expanding in scope and magnitude, making it virtually impossible for Surovikin to coordinate the entire endeavor all by himself. For that reason, Moscow has decided to employ four of its top commanders and give them command of various operational sectors, with General Gerasimov at the helm of this expanded operation.

Apart from Russia’s Chief of the General Staff, three other top-ranking Russian military officers are directly taking part in commanding Moscow’s troops engaged in Ukraine — Army General Oleg Salyukov and Colonel General Alexei Kim, in addition to General Surovikin himself, now assuming the positions of General Gerasimov’s deputies, with special tasks within the enlarged scope of the special military operation. With a force of well over half a million men, supported by the Russian Aerospace Forces and Navy firing hundreds of long-range cruise missiles and swarms of drones, the Kiev regime is faced with an offensive the scale of which is incomparable to anything seen in decades.

Naturally, the Russian military’s plan for the new offensive in Ukraine is a secret, but the information provided by several sources allows a reasonable estimate as to how it might play out. Head of the Kiev regime’s State Property Fund Rustem Umerov claims that the upcoming offensive will come from three directions. “The attack will come from the north, [from] across the Belarusian border, from Russian strongholds in eastern Ukraine and from the south,” Umerov stated, without citing any sources or intelligence. The claim comes approximately a week after CIA chief William Burns visited Kiev and apparently warned Volodymyr Zelensky about Russia’s “impending offensive”.

The possibility of an all-out Russian offensive from three directions certainly shouldn’t be excluded. However, it’s also in the interest of the Russian military to maintain at least some element of surprise and deny the Kiev regime forces the ability to accurately predict its course of action. It’s a strong possibility that the Eurasian giant might decide to take control of the entire left-bank Ukraine, which would require offensive operations in at least three sectors, the northeast (toward Chernigov), east (toward Kharkov) and south (toward Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk). All the while, troops deployed in the Donbass are expected to maintain pressure and tie in as many Kiev regime forces as possible, which eventually could result in the encirclement and final elimination of these units.

The success of such an operation would result in irrecoverable losses for the Neo-Nazi junta and possibly even end the conflict or at least wipe out Kiev’s overall fighting capability, limiting it to militia troops incapable of any maneuvers or large-scale movement necessary to stop further Russian advance. Meanwhile, many of the regime’s forces would be tied in expecting Russian advance from the north, which may or may not happen. And while it’s impossible to say how likely this scenario is, such shaping up of the battlefield can certainly be expected from the Russian military, as this would enable it to take key areas and further exacerbate the Neo-Nazi junta’s position, forcing it to negotiate on terms favorable to Moscow or even surrender if the battlefield losses become completely unbearable.

Although the mainstream propaganda machine is spinning the narrative about General Surovikin’s alleged “failures”, the Kiev regime’s high command doesn’t share the same blind optimism. Kiev’s chief commander General Valery Zaluzhny is well aware of Gerasimov’s competence, as he himself once described Russia’s top military officer as “the smartest of men”. Realizing the impending consequences of Gerasimov’s appointment as the overall commander of the Russian forces engaged in Ukraine, the Neo-Nazi junta is fuming at its NATO sponsors for not providing more weapons. The political West is now divided on delivering heavy tanks, with Washington DC and Berlin trying to toss the hot potato to each other.

Despite its refusal to commit more advanced heavy armor and repeated insistence that its European allies and vassals do this, the US wants the hostilities to last for as long as possible. During a meeting at the Ramstein airbase in Germany, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said: “From a military standpoint I still maintain that for this year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all, every inch of… Russian-occupied Ukraine.” While NATO pledged more weapons for the Kiev regime, the aforementioned question of delivering heavy tanks was left unanswered. And although it still hasn’t even been a full month this year, the US wants the hostilities to last “well into 2024”, obviously hoping to see at least another year of stalemate, despite mounting casualties of its favorite puppet regime.

Situation for Kiev is “very, very difficult” – US top general

Lucas Leiroz, researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.

While Western journalists insist that Ukraine is “winning” the conflict, experienced military and analysts continue to point to the evident fact that Russia cannot be defeated so easily. In a recent interview, a top US general commented that the situation is very complicated for the Ukrainians, who will have many difficulties to fulfill their promise to “expel” Russian forces from territories already reintegrated into Moscow’s sovereign space.

According to the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, Ukraine will face many problems in order to achieve its military objectives in the current conflict against Russia. He points out that most Western leaders, and even the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, despite the bellicose speech, believe that the resolution of the conflict will be done through diplomatic negotiations instead of by force. Milley seems skeptical of any possibility of Ukrainian success through the military dispute.

Milley also commented on the time it would take to end hostilities. Although some Ukrainian and Western politicians claim that they plan to expel the Russians as soon as possible, he does not believe in the possibility of this process being completed by 2023. The solid positions maintained by the Russian forces in the regions newly integrated into the Federation make it difficult to believe in the possibility of a rapid military reversal strong enough to guarantee Kiev the control of these territories.

“President Biden, President Zelensky, and most of the leaders of Europe have said this war is likely to end in a negotiation (…) From a military standpoint, this is a very, very difficult fight (…) I still maintain that for this year, it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine (…) That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, doesn’t mean it won’t happen. But it’d be very, very difficult”, he said during the interview.

Milley’s views sound realistically. He makes it clear that Ukraine’s weaknesses will not be overcome so easily, despite Western help. The US alone has already sent over 110 billion dollars in military aid to Kiev, providing packages that include heavy weapons, combat vehicles, anti-aircraft systems and over a million artillery shells. Europe and NATO allied nations are also providing everything they can to the Ukrainian neo-Nazi regime. However, Russian military superiority sounds evident, as Moscow celebrates more and more important victories, such as the recent seizures of Soledar and Klescheevka.

There are many factors that explain Russia’s success despite Western aid to Ukraine. Moscow’s focus is on avoiding a war of attrition that needlessly kills Russian soldiers and civilians. For this, there is a strategic direction of the fighting forces to key regions, where the military victory makes viable the cutting of the supply lines of the Ukrainian forces. Also, Russian artillery focuses on big military zones and infrastructure facilities, while parallel troops, such as the private military company “Wagner Group” play the role of infantry force, mainly in urban areas.

On the other hand, Kiev seems to have difficulties in strategically managing the conflict. Despite NATO’s support, the Ukrainian forces, as already reported by several on the ground informants, are marked by disorganization and corruption. Most Western weapons are absolutely new to the Ukrainian soldiers, who do not know how to operate them correctly, often causing damages against their own side.

Furthermore, Ukrainians seem to prioritize territory over human lives, unlike Russians. While Moscow constantly promotes strategic retreats to save lives, Kiev keeps troops in the trenches even when the battles are virtually lost. The result is the death of thousands of soldiers in unnecessary combat. These soldiers are replaced by new fighters, with not enough training and no military experience, resulting in strategic errors and more deaths.

In addition, it is important to mention that since 2014 Kiev deliberately attacks civilians and this has been getting worse as heavy weapons from the West arrive in the country. Much of the equipment imported by Ukraine has been used in demilitarized areas in Donbass for the sole purpose of murdering ethnic Russian civilians, without any military gain, which makes it even more complicated for this Western aid to have any real impact in the conflict.

In fact, Milley’s words just confirm what has already become a constant conclusion among military experts: Kiev is not able to defeat Russia – both because Moscow is militarily stronger and because of the lack of organizational and administrative capacity on the part of the Ukrainians. The possibility of a real military reversal would only happen in a scenario of more direct NATO’s intervention, but in this case the war would certainly escalate to the nuclear level and end without winners.

On the near horizon, only the Russian victory looks like a real scenario. The best to do is to resume the talks, with Kiev fully accepting Russian ceasefire terms. As Milley suggested, Western politicians themselves believe this, but they prefer to continue funding the conflict just to try to destabilize Russia’s strategic environment as much as possible, even if it costs the lives of Ukrainian citizens.

You can follow Lucas on Twitter and Telegram.

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