Category Archives: NATO

Video: “Political Theater”: Trump’s Attack against Iran

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By Prof Michel Chossudovsky and Drago Bosnic, Reposted with Permission

Global Research, June 24, 2025

Trump’s “Operation Midnight Hammer” attack on June 22, 2025 against Iran’s nuclear facilities involved the dispatch of B-2 aircraft out of the Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. 

This complex and improvised Operation was under the auspices of US Central Command (USCENTCOM), based in Florida, in close coordination with US Strategic Command (USSTRACOM) in Omaha, Nebraska. 

This program aims to analyze how “Operation Midnight Hammer” was conducted, as well as the motivation behind it and whether it was as successful as touted by President Donald Trump.

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In this video production, Michel Chossudovsky and Drago Bosnic focus on the latest attacks by the US-NATO-Israel against Iran.

Our objective is to reach out to people worldwide

Our longstanding commitment is to world peace and “true democracy.” We are in solidarity with the people of Iran and Palestine.

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The original source of this article is Global Research

Copyright © Prof Michel Chossudovsky and Drago Bosnic, Global Research, 2025

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NSPA scandals linked to Biden family to be revealed soon

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Investigations at a key NATO agency end up revealing new crimes by the Biden family.

Monday, June 23, 2025

Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

The corruption scandals in the West during the Biden era seem far from fully revealed. The deeper the investigations go, the more cases come to light, showing the world how the Biden family and elites linked to the US Democratic Party have plunged Western institutions into a web of crimes whose repercussions can still be seen in many parts of the world.

The NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) in Luxembourg recently admitted to conducting a criminal investigation into some of its current and former employees. The charges mainly involve fraud and corruption. Just a week after the investigation was announced, Stacey Cummings, director general of NSPA, began to be scrutinized by independent journalists. According to the newspaper La Lettre, Cummings was formally accused by NSPA’s head of human resources of manipulating the agency’s internal procedures and engaging in irregular recruitment practices.

Cummings has unexpectedly denied any allegations against her, but among the evidence presented by investigators are internal emails corroborating the accusations. Furthermore, there is even an official complaint filed against her by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte himself. Rutte apparently believes that Cummings is behind a scheme of false accusations against other senior NSPA officials.

The scheme worked as a diversionary tactic to hide internal corruption networks in which Cummings was involved. In this way, she used the investigations office to conduct unfounded cases against other agency officials, thus diverting attention from the real corrupt ones – since she herself was one of them. With this type of action, it was possible to prevent the embezzlement of significant sums of money by criminal NATO officials from being discovered.

Meanwhile, the real corruption schemes were not only ignored but also protected by Cummings and his associates. Sources familiar with the agency’s recruitment process say that Cummings forced officials to alter high-level contracts and interfered with appointments to key positions. This allowed money to be siphoned off in secret, without causing major repercussions.

For now, Cummings officially remains in her position, and NATO’s press office refuses to answer questions from outside investigators. This kind of special protection for Cummings is easy to understand if one considers that she came to lead the NSPA through direct influence from the US – more specifically from former President Joe Biden. Cummings is deeply associated with Biden and maintains direct ties with him and his family.

The case becomes even more curious considering that Cummings’ appointment took place amid investigations into corruption scandals involving Biden’s son and the Ukrainian gas company Burisma. One of the hypotheses raised by independent investigators is that Cummings was appointed to a high NATO position precisely to control the consequences of the Biden family’s scandals. In her position, she could not only protect the White House’s direct interests in NATO’s management, but also shift blame for the Biden family’s transgressions to other officials within the organization.

In fact, the situation is causing a lot of discomfort among NATO officials themselves. The case is only coming to light now because the American administration has changed and it is in the Republicans’ interest to expose crimes committed by the Democrats in order to gain political influence within the US – in addition to expanding the pro-Trump lobby in international institutions led by Washington. However, the process is being conducted with caution and confidentiality, since the seriousness of the issue could negatively impact not only the image of Biden and the Democrats but of the US and NATO as a whole.

It is still too early to assess the consequences of the investigations. It is not possible to say how much NATO will be impacted, since it is not yet known whether the organization’s officials will actually expose the whole truth about the internal corruption schemes established during the Biden era. However, one thing is clear: the crimes of the former American president’s family are becoming increasingly undisguised.

Biden and his associates have not only created a big corruption and embezzlement scheme involving governments, companies and international organizations throughout the West, but they have also been concerned with creating parallel schemes to cover up the crimes and transfer responsibility to other people. Authorities in Luxembourg are outraged by Cummings’ case because they believe that these international schemes could harm the country’s image.

This outrage is expected to become a trend in all countries that host organizations linked to the US and NATO. In practice, Washington and the Atlantic alliance are becoming synonymous with corruption and scandals rather than “defense of democracy and freedom.”

You can follow Lucas on X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram.

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The Brits & Ukrainians Are Plotting To Manipulate Trump Into Escalating Against Russia

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Guest Post by Andrew Korybko

Two false flag scenarios are being cooked up in the Baltic Sea to this end according to Russian spies.

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Agency (SVR) warned that the Brits and Ukrainians are preparing two false flag scenarios in the Baltic Sea. The first one would see Ukrainian-transferred Soviet/Russian torpedoes explode near a US ship there and a supposedly malfunctioning one will then be found to implicate Russia in the alleged attack The second, meanwhile, will involve Ukrainian-transferred Soviet/Russian mines fished out of the Baltic Sea and presented as proof of a Kremlin plot to sabotage international shipping.

These perfidious provocations are being employed to manipulate Trump into escalating against Russia after Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced in mid-February that the US won’t extend Article 5 mutual defense guarantees to NATO countries’ troops that might deploy to Ukraine. That scenario was the initial one that was planned for getting him to pull out of talks with Putin and then double down on support for Ukraine, but his team preemptively scuttled it through Hegseth’s announcement.

That’s why efforts are now underway to organize a false flag attack against a US ship in the Baltic and/or frame Russia as a threat to international shipping through the fishing out of its mines there. The Baltic has already been a so-called “NATO lake” since even before Finland and Sweden’s joined NATO given their prior shadow membership in the bloc, however, so it’s unrealistic that Russia could really carry out either of these two operations undetected even if it wanted to. Here are some background briefings:

* 11 March: “Russian Spies Warn That The UK Is Trying To Sabotage Trump’s Envisaged ‘New Détente’”

* 24 March: “Putin’s Senior Aide Patrushev Shared Some Updates About The Arctic & Baltic Fronts”

* 22 April: “Estonia Might Become Europe’s Next Trouble Spot”

* 1 June: “Russia’s Military Build-Up Along The Finnish Border Will Likely Be The New Normal”

* 3 June: “The Russian-Ukrainian Talks Are At An Impasse That Only The US Or Brute Force Can Break”

To summarize, they detail the contextual evolution of this scenario from SVR’s prior warnings of the UK’s intent to sabotage the Russian-US talks on Ukraine to the motives of regional actors (Estonia and Finland) in going along with this, ending with the diplomatic impasse that defines today’s state of affairs. About that, if the US doesn’t coerce Ukraine into the concessions that Russia demands for peace but also doesn’t wash its hands of this conflict, then it might very well double down on its involvement instead.

The reasonable speculation that Trump knew about Ukraine’s strategic drone strikes against Russia in advance coupled with the latest speculation that he deceived Iran with duplicitous diplomacy doesn’t do much to inspire confidence in him personally since he could possibly be in on these false flag plots too. Despite Putin’s bonhomie with Trump, which was recently expressed through their most recent call, some in Russia are beginning to suspect Trump of double-dealing.

It’s therefore imperative that he preemptively commit to not escalating against Russia if either of these two false flag scenarios transpire just like Hegseth preemptively averted the deployment of NATO countries’ troops to Ukraine (at least for now) by declaring that Article 5 won’t extend to them. It’s unclear whether Trump read SVR’s warning or if he can rely on his advisors to inform him (unless Putin told already him), however, so he might not even be aware of this and could thus be manipulated.

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Russia’s Arrival In Dnipropetrovsk Puts Ukraine In A Dilemma

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Guest Post by Andrew Korybko

It’s very difficult to imagine how Ukraine can prevent any further Russian advances after this.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Sunday that their forces had entered Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk Region, which Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed is part of Putin’s buffer zone plan. This was foreseen as early as late August once the Battle of Pokrovsk began but has been achieved even without capturing that strategic fortress town. Russian forces simply went around it after breaking through the southern Donbass front. This development puts Ukraine in a dilemma.

It’ll now have to simultaneously fortify the Dnipropetrovsk front together with the southern Kharkov and northern Zaporozhye ones in case Russia uses its new position to launch offensives into any of those three. This could put serious strain on the Ukrainian Armed Forces as they’re already struggling to prevent a major breakthrough in Sumy Region from Kursk. Coupled with depleting manpower and questions about continued US military-intelligence aid, this might be enough to collapse the frontlines.

To be sure, that scenario has been bandied about many times over the past more than 1,200 days, but it nowadays appears tantalizingly closer than ever. Observers also shouldn’t forget that Putin told Trump that he’ll respond to Ukraine’s strategic drone strikes earlier this month, which could combine with the abovementioned two factors to achieve this long-desired breakthrough. Of course, it might just be a symbolic demonstration of force, but it could also be something more significant as well.

Ukraine’s best chances of preventing this are for the US to either get Russia to agree to freeze the frontlines or to go on another offensive. The first possibility could be advanced by the carrot-and-stick approach of proposing a better resource-centric strategic partnership than has already been offered in exchange on pain of imposing crippling secondary sanctions on its energy clients (specifically China and India with likely waivers for the EU) and/or doubling down on military-intelligence aid if it still refuses.

As for the second, the 120,000 troops that Ukraine has assembled along the Belarusian border according to President Alexander Lukashenko last summer could either cross that frontier and/or one of Russia’s internationally recognized frontiers. Objectively speaking, however, both possibilities only stand a slim chance of success: Russia has made it clear that it must achieve more of its goals in the conflict before agreeing to any ceasefire while its success in pushing Ukraine out of Kursk bodes ill for other invasions.

The likelihood of Ukraine cutting its losses by agreeing to more of Russia’s demands for peace is nil. Therefore, it might inevitably opt, whether in lieu of the aforesaid scenarios or in parallel with one or both of them, to intensify its “unconventional operations” against Russia. This refers to assassinations, strategic drone strikes, and terrorism. All that will do, however, is provoke more (probably outsized) conventional retaliation from Russia and thus painfully delay Ukraine’s seemingly inevitable defeat.

With an eye towards the endgame, it appears as though an inflection point is about to be reached or already has been in the sense of irreversibly shifting the military-strategic dynamics in Russia’s favor. It’s very difficult to imagine how Ukraine can extricate itself from this dilemma. All signs point to this being impossible, though the conflict has already surprised observers on both sides before, so it can’t be ruled out. Nevertheless, it’s a far-fetched scenario, and it’s more likely that Ukraine’s official defeat is nigh.

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The “Big Beautiful Bill”: Another 60 Billion for Ukraine. Senator Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal in Violation of The Logan Act

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By Helena Glass

Editors Note: 60 Billion more for Ukraine is in this ridiculous bill. Don’t expect the traitors in the Congress and Senate to care because none of them do. No, not even Massie or Rand Paul, they just play the role of the opposition just like Ron Paul did. They’re all Freemasons.

“The Logan Act is a United States federal law that criminalizes the negotiation of a dispute between the United States and a foreign government by an unauthorized American citizen. It is intended to prevent unauthorized negotiations from undermining the U.S. government’s position.”

***

On June 2, Kyiv has a debt payment due to hedge fund investors in the amount of $665 million. 

Zelenskky has declared Ukraine will not make the payment and no restructuring agreement has been made. Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal decided that they would fly to Kyiv to celebrate the passage thru the house of a New Great Bill that will give Ukraine another $60 billion of US taxpayer funds. The One Big Beautiful Bill is now in the senate – wherein no one will read it and simply vote according to their scripted Handlers.

The Big Beautiful Bill is over 1,100 pages. And given the laziness of Congress I doubt they will even get thru the Table of Contents for their back flap book report. If you want to give it a shot – here it is.

It is notable that this Bill contributed to Elon Musk’s negative comments claiming it adds significantly to the deficit and basically negates DOGE cost cutting. There are a few Defense budgets that stand out: 1)  Indo-Pacific – which would coincide with Hegseth’s fear mongering about China and Taiwan, and 2) the largest single allocation – over $4 billion for ‘classified’ military space superiority. 

The Bill is sponsored by Jody Arrington, a war hawk from the Bush/Cheney era. His political contributors include Koch, Inc and AIPAC.   

It is notable that so many politicians have been able to easily come and go in Ukraine without incident – but then AI does wonders when you need to create fake stage sets. While in “Ukraine”, Graham and Blumenthal both stepped across the line of the Logan Act by specifically engaging in political dialogue and government activities with a nation at war.  When those comments cross to tariffs and the imposition of sanctions, and funding they have overlorded OFAC and The Treasury. 

OFAC: The Office of Foreign Assets Control, is a financial intelligence and enforcement agency of the U.S. Department of the Treasury that administers and enforces economic and trade sanctions. 

As US Senators, Graham and Blumenthal are responsible for writing laws, oversight of the executive branch, budget authority, confirmation of presidential nominees and the ratification of treaties. They are representatives of their ‘STATE” – not the country.

While they are free to travel abroad like any American, their discourse and meetings with government officials is quantifiably prohibited.  In this case, Graham and Blumenthal could only be permitted to travel in an official capacity as a Congressional Delegation.  Delegations are organized by committees within the Department of State – in this case, the overseer would be the Acting Director of Legislative Affairs, Philip Laidlaw – appointed by Biden. He would necessitate reporting to Marco Rubio.

The two committees available for approval include: House Foreign Affairs Committee Chaired by Brian Mast, and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee chaired by Jim Rische. They would be responsible for approval of a delegation’s authority. 

Graham: “What I learned on this trip is he (Putin) is preparing for more war”.

Thus attempting to spike the validation of the $60 Billion in funding while having a blow party and counting how much they can siphon from the taxpayers.  They are also loudly advocating for a 500% sanction tariff on any country that buys Russian oil and Gas.  Unfortunately, that would include the EU which continues to necessitate those supplies amidst an already out of control price hike – that has hit manufacturing the hardest.

China, India and Turkey remain the top importers of Russian oil and gas, with Europe’s dependence down from 45% to 20% – officially.  But that isn’t wholly accurate. Because Europe has a middleman – Turkey.  So the EU can pretend they have lowered dependence effectively, because they use a middleman – they pay significantly more.

The US, aka President Trump, needs to decide if he is friend or foe. The flip flopping is most certainly losing MAGA support and will impact Putin in deciding whether a full assault takeover of Ukraine is the only solution.  Blumenthal and Graham need to be held accountable for violating the Logan Act, not submitting the proper committee authority, and over-riding Rubio and OFAC leadership completely. Despite traveling to Ukraine 7 or 8 times – neither Graham or Blumenthal have seemingly submit a Statement of Disbursements report as required – 2024 or 2025.

If they traveled outside of Federal authority with private money, they have no license to conduct ANY Congressional business. Including meetings, conferences, and making international television appearances pretending they are representatives of America.

This article was sent to me to be republished by Global Research.CA. You can follow them on Instagram and X and subscribe to their Telegram Channel. Feel free to repost Global Research articles with proper attribution.

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War is Coming to America and the West

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Putin is going to take his revenge on Ukraine and the West very soon. The prophecies that God gave to Dumitru Duduman are coming to pass in front of our eyes now. Prayed up and prepped up time is short!

Hal Turner Story

Dumitru Duduman Prophecies for America

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WARS AND RUMORS OF WAR UPDATE! RUSSIA, IRAN, UKRAINE, USA AND MORE!

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It seems Dmitry Medvedev has once again said the quiet part out loud. The deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and former president has said Tuesday that Moscow is engaged in peace talks with Ukraine in order ultimately to ensure a swift and complete Russian victory.

“The Istanbul talks are not for striking a compromise peace on someone else’s delusional terms but for ensuring our swift victory and the complete destruction of the neo-Nazi regime,” the Russian official, who has long been known for his hawkish outspokenness, stated.

— 🇮🇷/🇺🇸 On the recent New York Times report (https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/us/politics/iran-nuclear-deal-proposal.html) on the latest U.S. nuclear proposal

There seems to be a lot of optimism on social media and in U.S. reporting about this latest proposal made by America towards Iran.

I can assure you, based on Iranian diplomatic sources, this proposal (which is mentioned by the NYT) does not sufficiently addresses Iran’s demands.

Contrary to what is being reported in the media, this is not a ‘revised’ proposal — it is the same proposal that was presented by Oman’s FM Al-Busaidi in Tehran last week, and Iran already called it ‘delusional and one-sides’ and has practically rejected it.

The proposal states that Iran will be allowed to temporarily enrich uranium on its soil, up to 3.67% purity necessary for civilian use, but that gradually Iran would fully dismantle its existing nuclear infrastructure and the enrichment for Iran’s fuel for its nuclear powerplants would be supplied by a regional ‘enrichment consortium’ in the Gulf.

Iran is not against the creation of a regional uranium enrichment consortium, but will never agree to dismantle its existing nuclear infrastructure or accept temporary ‘ceremonial’ 3% enrichment — because that’s all this U.S. proposal is.

According to the proposal, once Iran starts receiving ‘benefits’ from the deal (i.e. sanctions relief), it would have to fully give up its domestic enrichment, and receive fuel for its nuclear reactors only from the regional consortium, which will likely be US-supervised (even if located on Iran’s Persian Gulf islands).

Russia Seeks Victory not Compromise

Hal Turner Story

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Trump Says “Putin Playing with Fire” as War in Ukraine Escalates

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white and red missles

Meanwhile Germany’s new leader Merz says that all of the range limit restrictions for Ukraine have been removed and that Ukraine is free to use their Taurus missiles to attack deep into Russia. Also Netanyahu is being told to stand down on any attack on Iran as the US prefers a peaceful solution to the situation. However it’s this author’s opinion that an agreement with Iran looks unlikely unless the US backs down on their 0 enrichment demands.

Plus, it’s armageddon and there won’t be any long term peace until Jesus Christ the Prince of Peace returns. Prayed up and prepped up, things are going to get rough soon!

Trump Latest Angry Post About Putin

Trump Tells Netanyahu to stand down

Germany’s Merz Says Range Restrictions Lifted for Ukraine

Funding for May-June

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US deliberately harmed Ukraine – CIA official

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American intention was never to make Kiev win, but to prolong the war indefinitely.

Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

Since the beginning of the Donald Trump administration in the US, American officials have been gradually exposing the truth about the conflict in Ukraine – especially regarding decisions made by the previous administration. Now, sources familiar with the policy of support for Ukraine confirm that the US deliberately put the Kiev regime in a position of military weakness, fearing that Russia would lose its patience too quickly if Washington escalated the war.

In a recent interview, Ralph Goff – former head of CIA operations in Europe and Eurasia – said that the Joe Biden administration deliberately restricted military support to Ukraine, fearing the start of an unrestricted escalation of the war. According to Goff, American authorities chose to let Ukraine “bleed” rather than seek a “victory”, fearing that Russia would react nuclear in the event of an all-out war.

Goff explains that Ukraine has repeatedly requested the delivery of advanced American weapons, aiming to increase its firepower and acquire the ability to generate real damage against Russia – including within the Federation’s internationally recognized territory. But Biden and his team feared that such Western aid would trigger a Russian nuclear response, which is why Ukrainian requests were consistently rejected — or, when approved, there was at least some delay on the part of Washington in sending the requested weapons.

It is important to emphasize that Goff does not mention these facts as something positive. He is a vocal supporter of Ukraine and believes that this move by Biden was a mistake. According to him, it would have been better to have given Ukraine high firepower in the early stages of the war. Goff believes that this would have prevented a prolonged conflict scenario, allowing Ukraine to expel the “invaders.” The CIA official laments the previous president’s failure to escalate the war, saying the US was “bamboozled” by Russian “nuclear” rhetoric.

“Had we equipped the Ukrainians at that time with proper weaponry, they might have been able to drive the Russians all the way out of the country (…) It didn’t happen. It set the stage for this longer, protracted, drawn out, meat grinder war that we are witnessing today (…) [Western governments had] allowed themselves to be bamboozled by Vladimir Putin and his nuclear-saber rattling (…) So they gave the Ukrainians this weaponry, but they never gave them enough to win. They only gave them enough to bleed,” he said.

As a result of this situation, Goff explains that the war has become extremely bloody for Ukraine. He believes that everything will get worse and that the line of contact will soon become a real “death zone” due to the Russian use of drones and other modern military equipment, which hinders the transit of troops and prevents any tactical success for Ukraine.

“It will be a 20–50km death zone (…) where you can’t move because there are so many drones in the air and robots on the ground and sensors and mines,” he added.

In fact, there is nothing new in Goff’s words. However, they reveal very clearly how the American people were deceived and how the public was led to believe that taxpayers’ money was being invested in a “Ukrainian victory.” As serious analysts have long warned, the West’s intention was never to “win” the war. On the contrary, NATO has always known that an all-out war against Russia is unwinnable, given Moscow’s nuclear arsenal. This is precisely why a strategy was created to destabilize Russia, rather than confront it directly, using Ukraine as a proxy for this.

Biden delayed sending high-intensity weapons to Ukraine as long as he could because he was genuinely afraid of losing control of the situation. His intention was not to generate a nuclear war – although some European countries have shown themselves willing to escalate the war to that level – but rather to create instability on Russian borders and delay the formal creation of a multipolar world. Only after Trump had already won the election did Biden take a bolder initiative against Russia, authorizing cross-border strikes – which seems to have been a move aimed at escalating the war to such a point that it would no longer be possible for Trump to reverse it.

In the same vein, Goff is belatedly speaking about the situation on the battlefield. The front lines have long since become a “kill zone” for Ukrainians, with Kiev’s soldiers being easy targets for Russian artillery, drones and aircraft. The US has refused to acknowledge this reality because it relied on lies to sustain its war machine, but it is now beginning to expose these facts because Trump does not seem interested in prolonging the conflict – even though he does not have power enough stop it on his own.

In the end, once again American lies are exposed and belatedly debunked by the country’s own authorities.

You can follow Lucas on X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram.

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Radio Liberty Let The Cat Out Of The Bag Regarding The EU’s Game Plan For Ukraine

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Guest post by Andrew Korybko

Russia can expect nothing in return from the EU if Putin concedes to allow their troops and aircraft to deploy in and patrol over Western Ukraine.

Russia has long warned that any unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine of the 30-day sort that Zelensky has proposed could create an opening for NATO to expand its military influence in that country. Hitherto dismissed as a conspiracy theory by the West, Radio Liberty just let the cat out of the bag. The unnamed officials who they cited in their recent article confirmed that they envisage this “buy[ing] the Europeans time to assemble a ‘reassurance force’ in the Western part of Ukraine” and organize “air patrols” there.

Their reported game plan is “keeping the Americans onboard” the peace process, “sequencing” the conflict by clinching a ceasefire that’ll later lead to a lasting peace, and using the aforesaid interim period to carry out the abovementioned military moves for pressuring Russia into more concessions. What’s omitted from Radio Liberty’s article is that Russia has threatened to target Western troops in Ukraine, who Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth earlier said wouldn’t enjoy Article 5 guarantees from the US.

Even if Putin agrees to this concession that’s assessed to be among one of the five significant differences between him and Trump that prompted Trump’s angry post against Putin, Radio Liberty reported that this still wouldn’t lead to de jure European recognition of Russia’s territorial gains. The same goes for them lifting sanctions or returning any of its €200 billion of seized assets. More sanctions might even soon be imposed and the windfall profits from those assets will “bankroll Ukraine’s military needs”.

Given what Radio Liberty revealed, Russia can therefore expect nothing in return from the EU if Putin concedes to allow their troops and aircraft to deploy in and patrol over Western Ukraine. Any hopes of restoring Ukraine’s antebellum buffer state status would be crushed, and it can’t be ruled out that the EU’s zone of military activity could later expand to the Dnieper or beyond. One of the special operation’s goals was to prevent the West’s eastward military expansion so that would be another major concession.

Putin’s decades-long close friend and influential senior aide Nikolay Patrushev just told TASS earlier this week that “For the second year in a row, NATO is holding the largest exercises in decades near our borders, where it is practicing scenarios of offensive actions over a large area – from Vilnius to Odessa, the seizure of the Kaliningrad region, the blocking of shipping in the Baltic and Black Seas, and preventive strikes on the permanent bases of Russian nuclear deterrent forces.”

Secretary of the Security Council Sergey Shoigu told the same outlet several days prior that “Over the past year, the number of military contingents of NATO countries deployed near the western borders of the Russian Federation has increased almost 2.5 times…NATO is moving to a new combat readiness system, which provides for the possibility of deploying a 100,000-strong group of troops near the borders of Russia within 10 days, 300,000 by the end of 30 days, and 800,000 by the end of 180 days.”

When the EU’s prioritization of the Baltic Defence Line and Poland’s complementary East Shield are added to the equation, coupled with plans for expanding the “military Schengen” to speed up the eastward deployment of troops and equipment, the trappings of Operation Barbarossa 2.0 are apparent. Putin can’t influence what NATO does within the bloc’s borders, but he has the power to stop its de facto expansion into Western Ukraine during a ceasefire, which could partially hinder its speculative plans.

Conceding to them, which he might agree to do for the five reasons mentioned in the second half of this analysis here from early March, would lead to Russia’s mutual defense ally Belarus being surrounded by NATO along its northern, western, and then southern flanks. That could make it a tempting future target, but Western aggression might be deterred by the continued deployment of Russia’s Oreshniks and tactical nuclear weapons, the latter of which Belarus has already been authorized to use at its discretion.

Conceding to Western troops in Ukraine in exchange for the economic and strategic benefits that Russia hopes to reap from the US if their nascent “New Détente” takes off after a peace deal would therefore entail conventional security costs that could be managed through the means that were just described. At the same time, however, hardliners like Patrushev, Shoigu, and honorary chairman of Russia’s influential Council on Foreign and Defense Policy Sergey Karaganov could dissuade him from such a deal.

Putin must therefore decide whether this is an acceptable trade-off or if Russia should risk losing its post-conflict strategic partnership with the US by continuing to oppose NATO’s de facto expansion into Western Ukraine, including via military means if EU forces move into there without Russian approval. His decision will determine not only the future of this conflict, but also Russia’s contingency planning vis-à-vis a possible hot war with NATO, thus making this the defining moment of his quarter-century rule.

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