Tag Archives: #NATO

The Brits, French, & Germans Are Now Right On Russia’s Doorstep

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By Andrew Korybko, reposted with permission.

There are really only three scenarios left: NATO finally agrees to some form of Russia’s proposals; Russia launches a preventive war against European NATO betting that the US won’t directly intervene; or Russia peacefully subordinates itself to the West.

Last weekend’s surprise call between Presidents Emmanuel Macron and Alexander Lukashenko followed Deputy Chair of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev warning about the 1941-like threat posed by Germany’s remilitarization and the UK assembling a multinational navy to contain Russia. These three developments collectively draw attention to how the Brits, French, and Germans, Russia’s traditional European rivals, are now right on its doorstep. The security implications are profound.

The Brits are nestling up in Estonia, from where they plan to lead Russia’s containment along the Arctic -Baltic front, while the Germans opened a base in Lithuania and the French just announced regular nuclear drills with Poland. As a reminder, Estonia borders “mainland Russia” while Lithuania and Poland border its exclave of Kaliningrad and mutual defense ally Belarus. The “military Schengen” between the Netherlands, Germany, and Poland might thus soon be expanded to include France and the Baltic States.

That would maximally optimize the flow of troops and equipment from Western Europe to Russia’s borders, thus conforming with Russian policymakers’ fears that the EU is gearing up for a potential invasion of their country sometime in the future. Given France’s base in Romania and military pact with neighboring Moldova, which constitute a critical flank in the Ukrainian Conflict due to enabling France to aid Odessa in the scenario of its threatened conventional intervention, they and others might join too.

To make matters even more concerning from the perspective of Russia’s national security interests, Germany recently clinched a deep-strike defense co-production deal with Ukraine, thus expanding its military footprint even deeper within what Russia considers to be its “sphere of influence”. The result is that the UK is entrenching its influence along the Arctic-Baltic front, Germany is doing so in the Baltic (Lithuanian) and Ukrainian ones, while France is already entrenched in Poland, Romania, and Moldova.

Germany aspires to build European NATO’s largest army, which would require overtaking Poland and ideally from its perspective subordinating that country as a vassal, while France and the UK are nuclear powers. The threat posed by their military-strategic convergence right on Russia’s doorstep therefore cannot be overestimated. At the very least, it could embolden their partners to behave aggressively against Russia, calculating as they might that those Great Powers would deter Russian retaliation.

That would be a mistake of epic proportions because Russia cannot allow such a scenario to unfold, let alone become the “new normal”, as it would amount to them weaponizing it for coercing never-ending concessions that would culminate in time with Russia’s subordination and ultimately “Balkanization”. In other words, a hot NATO-Russian war would likely be inevitable, though nobody can say for sure whether the US would help its European allies, nor to what extent if so, or whether it would hang them out to dry.

It’s therefore more urgent than ever that the European security architecture be reformed like Russia sought to do through diplomatic means before the special operation, the failure of which was why Putin sought to advance this through military ones instead. There are really only three scenarios left: NATO finally agrees to some form of Russia’s proposals; Russia launches a preventive war against European NATO betting that the US won’t directly intervene; or Russia peacefully subordinates itself to the West.

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Russia-Belarus “Joint Nuclear Drills”. Russia’s Revised Strategic Doctrine. “Deter Any Potential Aggressor”

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Map of Eastern Europe with glowing connection lines between cities

By Drago Bosnik at Global Research. Reposted with permission.

On May 19, Russia and Belarus launched their joint nuclear drills that lasted until May 21.

These strategic maneuvers involved nearly 65,000 personnel, roughly 7,800 military vehicles and over 200 missile launch systems.

They stretched across a vast geographic area from Eastern Europe to the Pacific, encompassing nearly all of Belarus and most of Russia.

Everything from tactical, short-range assets to strategic weapons such as ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) and SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles) was tested, once again proving that Moscow and Minsk are capable of defending themselves against any potential adversary foolish enough to attack them.

Russian President Vladimir Putin observed and later discussed the drills with his Belarussian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko, stressing that the use of nuclear weapons is “an extreme, exceptional measure for ensuring the national security of our states”. This demonstrates that the Kremlin understands just how dangerous such weapons are and how much responsibility nuclear powers have. However, there’s simply no other way to ensure the safety of both Moscow and Minsk. President Lukashenko was even more straightforward.

Namely, during an inspection of now legendary nuclear-capable 9K720M “Iskander-M” systems, he said: “I dreamed about this machine a long time ago.”

And indeed, the system’s 9M723 series of hypersonic missiles is unrivaled in its category and continues to be upgraded by the Russian military.

The “Iskander’s” stellar battlefield performance serves as undeniable evidence that no enemy stands a chance against Russia and Belarus.

The Neo-Nazi Kiev regime’s laughable claims about shooting down such weapons have been repeatedly debunked, including by its own high-ranking military officers. In reality, there’s zero proof that even one 9M723 hypersonic missile was ever shot down. This is bad news for NATO, as the “Iskander” is capable of deploying not only thermonuclear, but also EMP (electromagnetic pulse) warheads.

As previously mentioned, the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) stated that the exercise involved over 64,000 troops, more than 200 missile launch systems, nearly 150 aircraft, 73 surface warships and 13 submarines, including eight SSBNs (nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine) with SLBMs. 

The MoD also added that “the drills focused on the preparation and use of nuclear forces under the threat of [foreign] aggression”. In addition, this was a unique opportunity for Russia and Belarus to further integrate their command structures and improve interoperability, particularly with respect to the critically important weapons that ensure both countries’ strategic security.

Namely, Minsk is Moscow’s key ally that has been entrusted with hosting Russian thermonuclear weapons. The number of deployed warheads remains unknown, but it could be in the hundreds, as Russia considers the security of Belarus equally important to its own safety. To achieve this, the Kremlin needs to test the capabilities of its vast strategic arsenal, particularly the delivery systems.

RS-24 Yars SS-29 ICBM

This includes the state-of-the-art RS-24 “Yars” ICBMs and R-29RMU “Sineva” SLBMs (test-fired by “Bryansk”, a Delta IV-class SSBN in service with the Northern Fleet). Meanwhile, the even more advanced Borei-class SSBNs were also activated during the exercises to test their systems, protocols and readiness.

However, as previously mentioned, the drills also involved a plethora of tactical and operational-level weapon systems. Unlike ICBMs and SLBMs, these weapons are not designed to obliterate entire cities, provinces or even countries, but are used as tactical nuclear weapons intended to neutralize large concentrations of invading troops on the battlefield. Such weapons also include aerial delivery systems and warheads for short- and medium-range missiles and even artillery munitions. It should be noted that, in addition to being the world’s premier thermonuclear superpower, Russia maintains the largest arsenal of tactical and operational nuclear weapons in the world.

Apart from the “Iskander”, the shipborne 3M22 “Zircon” and air-launched 9-S-7760 hypersonic missiles (found on the 9-A-7660 “Kinzhal” systems) were also used. Belarussian troops even test-fired one of the 9M723s used by the “Iskander” inside Russia. No other country has such a privileged security status, especially now that Belarus is part of the Kremlin’s strategic architecture. Moscow revised its nuclear doctrine several times, including in 2024, when it made it clear that any large-scale conventional attack supported by another nuclear power would be considered a joint aggression on Russia. Obviously, this was a direct warning to the political West, its vassals and satellite states.

And indeed, the world’s most aggressive power pole keeps escalating its involvement in the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict, including with direct drone strikes from the Baltic states. The revised Russian strategic doctrine and the latest drills are there to discourage the political West from allowing the Neo-Nazi junta to strike Russia with longer-range weapons.

And while it may seem to lower the threshold for the possible use of nuclear arsenals, this mainly applies to those who are most aggressive and pathologically Russophobic. Perhaps more importantly, the revised doctrine also directly places Minsk under Moscow’s thermonuclear umbrella, shielding it from a potential NATO aggression.

The Kremlin still retains control of its nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus, but allows Minsk to select priority targets in case of a NATO land invasion.

This combination provides both Russia and Belarus with a possibility of preventing escalation while retaining the capability to deter any potential aggressor. And it seems to be working, because NATO jets started downing the Kiev regime’s drones over the Baltic states at around the same time. It remains to be seen why the world’s most aggressive racketeering cartel is doing it only now, but it’s highly likely that Brussels finally understands that it should at least lie low while nuclear drills last.

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Russia’s Threat of a Massive Retaliatory Strike on Kiev, Isn’t a Bluff

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By Andrew Korybko. Reposted with permission. His work can be found HERE.

Russia can’t afford to discredit itself abroad, nor can Putin’s ruling United Russia party afford to discredit itself at home four months before the next polls, by threatening overwhelming retaliation against Ukraine if it attacks Moscow’s Victory Day parade only to symbolically retaliate or do nothing at all.

The Russian Defense Ministry warned local civilians and the staff of diplomatic missions in Kiev of their country’s plans to launch a massive retaliatory strike on the city center if Ukraine goes through with Zelensky’s threat to attack Moscow’s Victory Day parade on 9 May. This was followed by Russia announcing ballistic missile tests from Kamchatka from 6-10 May. Shortly afterwards, the Russian Foreign Ministry reiterated the Defense Ministry’s warning, thus ensuring that the world is aware of it.

This threat likely isn’t a bluff for three sequential reasons.

The first is that Russia wants to deter Ukraine from attacking Moscow’s Victory Day parade for self-evident reasons, both relating to optics and the security of its VIPs, to which end it threatened overwhelming retaliation if this happens.

The second reason is that Russia cannot threaten such a response without actually going through with it if provoked, otherwise it would irredeemably discredit itself, and more audacious attacks would then likely follow.

And third, Russia is finally signaling its willingness to overwhelmingly retaliate against decision-making centers in Kiev per the Foreign Ministry’s additionally specified threat in the event of Ukraine carrying out this high-profile provocation due to its hardline Kremlin faction partially superceding its moderate one.

To explain, Putin hitherto restrained his military due his belief in “The Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” as well as his concerns about an uncontrollable escalation spiral sparking World War III.

Once Trump returned and responded positively to Putin’s offer of dialogue for resolving the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine, which Biden rejected, Putin and his fellow moderates dangled a resource-centric strategic partnership for incentivizing compromises. The US was receptive to such a partnership, but Russia rejected its demanded compromises that were presented as a precondition, while the US rejected Russia’s own such demands and didn’t coerce compliance from Ukraine or NATO either.

While Trump declined to escalate the Ukrainian Conflict amid this impasse, he still greenlit the rolling back of Russian influence across the world in a bid to coerce Putin into the US’ demanded compromise, namely freezing the conflict in exchange for sanctions relief without resolving the root issues. Informally known as the “Neo-Reagan Doctrine”, it’s placed Russia under pressure in at least 15 different countries, thus discrediting the moderate faction and prompting some among it like Putin to rethink their views.

The Third Gulf War, in which Iran attacked regional US bases without triggering an uncontrollable escalation spiral, then convinced Putin to finally listen to the hardliners who’ve been urging massive strikes on Ukrainian decision-making centers in Kiev since the get-go. Public opinion, which is important ahead of September’s next Duma elections, has long aligned with the hardliners on this issue. Putin now seems to have assented but only in retaliation to Ukrainian attacks against Moscow’s Victory Day parade.

These factors make it unlikely that Russia is bluffing, in which case the country itself wouldn’t just be discredited abroad, but so too would the ruling United Russia party be discredited in voters’ eyes four months before the next polls. There’s already speculation of a protest vote in support of the communist and nationalist opposition parties, which might prompt various reforms if it happens, but a large-scale one driven by any hypothetical bluff could herald an era of uncertainty that Putin would prefer to avoid.

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Russian Media Says Relations With Turkey are Deteriorating Fast

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Once again it appears Turkey is trying to play both sides, NATO and Russia. Turkey is also supplying its suicide drones to the Ukrainian military, potentially to be used AGAINST Russian forces! At the same time Turkey is also supplying F-16s to Poland as part of a NATO agreement, once again to be used against Russia and last but not least Turkey and Azerbaijan are conducting massive exercises and simulating an invasion of Armenia proper. At some point Russia will have to intervene on behalf of Armenia AGAINST Turkey because of defense agreements. All of this comes just after FM Lavrov of Russia suggested joining the Turkish council. Russia and Turkey, I guess the millennials would say “it’s complicated.”

The following comes from warnews247 out of Greece. I’ve translated it to English for you using Google Translate.

“Russia and Turkey are close to a phase of conflict”

The revelation about the downing of the Su-24 will cost

Russia’s official leadership has not yet responded to a report by the media Nordic Monitor, which revealed that Colonel Ali Durmush said the downing of the Russian Su-24 fighter jet in 2015 was ordered by Turkish Air Force Commander Abidina Yunala. This news could lead to a deterioration of relations between Moscow and Ankara.

The official leadership of the Russian Federation is still very careful with the increasing military activity of Turkey. Moscow is mainly limited to its criticism of the Kiev-Ankara interaction in the military and military-diplomatic spheres.

The issue of Bayraktar and Ukraine

In particular, in April, journalists tried to discuss with Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov the issue of Russia’s reaction to the supply of a new batch of Turkish Bayraktar drones from Ukraine.

These aircraft, equipped with the Ukrainian army, regularly monitor the area near the Crimean border and are in combat positions in Donbass. In Kiev, they threatened to use this weapon against the Russian Federation in a possible armed conflict.

These new weapons provided to Ukraine further aggravate Moscow’s difficult relationship with the current leadership of Kiev. ” We will look into this case ,” Borisov said in response to a question from the media about whether Russia would suspend military-technical cooperation (MTC) with Turkey if Ankara supplied Ukraine with a new batch of drones.

The warning of the Russian Foreign Minister

But the other day in a briefing, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova criticized Ankara for the official statements of Turkish diplomat Tanju Bilgit that his country “will continue to support its brothers to rectify the situation of the Crimean Tatars.” they continue to struggle with difficulties, 77 years after the deportation “.

Zakharova described Ankara’s concern as “opportunistic”. “If this rhetoric continues, we should also pay attention to similar problems in Turkey. “We would not like to do that, so I hope the Turkish Foreign Ministry will listen to us today ,” Zakharova said. Her intervention was considered a diplomatic message to Turkey.

The issue of the Caucasus

Ankara, meanwhile, is ignoring these messages from Russia and on many issues continues to promote its interests not only in Ukraine but also in other parts of the CIS, trying to squeeze the position of the Russian Federation.

For example, while Moscow is making significant mediation efforts to normalize the situation on the border in the Karabakh conflict zone, Turkey is strengthening the combat capabilities of Azerbaijani military units concentrated near Armenia.

The scenarios of the Turkey-Azerbaijan exercise 

According to Baku, last week’s Azeri military exercises included joint exercises with the Turkish army. It was reported that “during the exercise, special teams simulated covert penetration into enemy territory and ambush organization very deep against a specific enemy. In addition, they practiced occupying outposts and military installations. 

Particular attention was paid to the organization of covert attacks, the destruction of sabotage groups, the suppression of hostile provocations and the study of the specifics of counter-terrorism operations. “Experts emphasize that a separate issue in these exercises was the use of Bayraktar aircraft,” not only for conducting strike missions, but also for conducting counter-terrorism operations with the participation of ground forces.

“Anatolian Phoenix 2021”

On May 24th, Ankara and Baku launched a new series of exercises called “Anatolian Phoenix 2021”. The exercise will start in Turkey and will last for two weeks.

According to media reports, “Azerbaijani forces, several Mi-17 helicopters, Search and Rescue Division from the Puta naval base will take part in the exercise.

Defender Europe 21

Simultaneously with this exercise, Turkey continues to transport troops to Romania to participate in the large-scale NATO exercise Defender Europe 21. Turkey participates with more than 200 armor and 1,300 soldiers.

It is still unknown whether the Azerbaijani soldiers will take part in these exercises. But Baku is clearly limiting military contacts with Moscow – in particular, for 2021 they are limited, compared to previous years.

“There is no doubt that Moscow can put pressure on Turkey to realize its geopolitical and military interests,” said military expert Yuri Netkachev, who has served in the South Caucasus for a long time.

Restrictive military measures will be taken

“But there are completely different goals for the Kremlin. The main ones are related to economic energy projects that Moscow has agreed with Turkey and Europe.

These projects, I think, will be implemented. Restrictive measures will be taken for defense plans in the field of military-technical cooperation, tourism, etc. “Someone in the West is calling these elements a hybrid war.”

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