US nuclear Subs are on high alert, the Russian ambassador is sounding the warning but no one in the west is listening, just escalating. Time is short! Prayed up and prepped up!
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He wants to deter the even greater provocations that the West might now be plotting, such as destabilizing and then invading Belarus, with the intent of coercing him into freezing the existing LOC and then possibly accepting the deployment of Western/NATO peacekeepers there.
Putin surprised the world on Thursday when he addressed the nation to inform them that Russia had tested a new hypersonic medium-range missile earlier that morning in an attack against a famous Soviet-era industrial complex in the Ukrainian city of Dnepropetrovsk. He explained that this was a response to the US and UK recently allowing Ukraine to use their long-range missiles inside of Russia. Their decision resulted in the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine “assuming elements of a global nature” in his words.
As was explained here with regards to the “moment of truth” that this latest phase of the conflict led to, he was faced with the choice of either escalating or continuing his policy of strategic patience, the first of which could foil attempts by Trump to reach a peace deal while the second could invite more aggression. Putin chose the former and did so in a creative way that few foresaw. The Oreshnik missile system whose existence he disclosed on Thursday has Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs).
It’s essentially the same sort of weapon that Russia could use in the event of a nuclear conflict with the West since the aforesaid feature coupled with its hypersonic speed means that it’s impossible to intercept. In other words, Putin rattled Russia’s nuclear saber in the most convincing way possible short of testing a nuclear weapon, which his government previously confirmed that it wouldn’t do for the reasons that were explained here. He’s therefore finally climbing the escalation ladder.
Putin hitherto declined to escalate in response to the over 1,000 days’ worth of NATO-backed Ukrainian provocations that included bombing the Kremlin, early warning systems, strategic airfields, nuclear power plants, and the Crimean Bridge, among many other sensitive targets, so as to avoid World War III. He also prioritized political goals over military ones up until this point, but that’s all changing now since he realized that his strategic patience was interpreted as weakness and only invited more aggression.
Seeing as how Ukraine’s latest use of Western weapons inside of Russia’s pre-2014 territory isn’t unprecedented due to the HIMARS already having been used in Belgorod and Kursk Regions, the latter of which Ukraine invaded with NATO’s support over the summer, the question arises of why it took over three months for his views to change. It should also be noted that Russia didn’t significantly respond to Ukraine fielding the F-16s despite Lavrov previously warning that they could be nuclear-equipped.
Russia might have therefore received intelligence that the West is plotting an even greater provocation in the future. Belarusian media just aired a documentary exposing a Western plot to destabilize and invade their country, which readers can learn more about by reviewing the seven analyses that were listed in this one here. Correspondingly, it was assessed that “Russia’s Updated Nuke Doctrine Aims To Deter Unacceptable Provocations From NATO”, and the aforesaid would certainly constitute such.
Putin’s strategic patience would have finally reached its limits if he caught wind that anything of the sort was afoot, which would explain why he’d order the Oreshnik to be used against that Soviet-era industrial complex in Central Ukraine in order to send an unmistakable message to the West to reconsider its plans. Recalling how concerned he is about avoiding World War III, it also makes sense why his spokesman confirmed that Russia informed the US about this approximately half an hour ahead of time.
After all, launching an intermediate-range hypersonic missile westward without any advance notification could have prompted the US to panic by interpreting this as the start of a potential nuclear first strike by Russia, thus setting into motion the exact same scenario that he’s worked so hard to avoid. His motive was to deter the West from carrying out unacceptable provocations that cross Russia’s most sensitive redlines, which the West might be plotting out of desperation to “escalate to de-escalate” on its terms.
It was written here, here, and here that Trump might resort to that, but the latest ATACMS escalation – which can be regarded as a provocation due to these missiles having a much longer range than the HIMARS – suggests that the “Collective Biden” decided to do so first out of fear that whatever deal he might reach with Putin would compromise on too many of the US’ interests. Accordingly, Putin might now have decided to beat the US to the punch by “escalating to de-escalate” on Russia’s terms instead.
Thursday morning was the first time that a MIRV was used in combat, which is much more significant than the US “boiling the frog” by expanding the range of the missiles that Ukraine has already been able to use inside of Russia’s pre-2014 borders after once again signaling its escalatory plans long in advance, especially since few saw it coming and the US only had around a 30-minute notice. Putin also warned that Russia’s new doctrine allows it to use such weapons against those who arm Ukraine.
It’s unlikely that he’ll throw caution to the wind by launching Oreshniks against military targets in NATO countries at the risk of sparking World War III, but it can’t be ruled out that the next escalation that he’s considering in response to more aggression could be bombing Moldova instead. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said earlier in the week that the Western-backed government there is “turning the country at a rapid pace into a logistics hub used to supply the Ukrainian armed forces.”
It’s not a NATO member though so Russia could bomb it without crossing the West’s red lines while still signaling that he’s not the pushover that they convinced themselves that he was after misreading the reasons for his strategic patience if they still keep provoking him even after Thursday’s escalation. They want him to accept Western/NATO peacekeepers along the Line of Contact (LOC), Ukraine’s continued militarization, its future membership in NATO, and no change in its anti-Russian legislation.
By contrast, Putin wants to expel Ukraine from the four regions that voted to join Russia in September 2022, no Western/NATO peacekeepers along the LOC, Ukraine’s demilitarization, the restoration of its constitutional neutrality, and the rescinding of its anti-Russian legislation. Beating the West to the punch by “escalating to de-escalate”, or at least finally climbing the escalation ladder in response to their provocations, is therefore aimed at achieving as many of these maximum goals as he can.
If he sticks to his guns and doesn’t waver from his newfound approach, which is arguably long-overdue since some believe that he should have begun applying it after the failure of spring 2022’s peace talks, then he stands a much greater chance of achieving at least part of the most important ones. NATO can always conventionally intervene in Ukraine west of the Dnieper to salvage some of its geopolitical project so Russia should assume that it won’t be able to demilitarize or denazify that part of the country.
What it can do, however, is employ military and diplomatic means (both individually and in combination through its abovementioned newfound approach) to obtain control over all the territory that it claims as its own east of the Dnieper, possibly including Zaporozhye’s eponymous city of over 700,000 people. The new LOC could then be patrolled by purely non-Western forces deployed as part of a UN mandate while Ukraine might be coerced to demilitarize everything that remains under its control east of the Dnieper.
All heavy weapons would have to be withdrawn westward as part of a massive demilitarized zone (DMZ), while the possibility also exists that this “Transdnieper” region might also receive political autonomy or at least cultural autonomy to protect the rights of ethnic Russians and those who speak that language. This scenario was first tabled here in March and could take the form shown below, with the western part of the country in blue possibly hosting NATO troops as part of the arrangement that’ll then be described:
Ukraine could be deterred from breaking the ceasefire due to the DMZ placing it at a disadvantage, while Russia would be deterred by the “security guarantees” that Ukraine clinched with a bunch of NATO countries this year, which amount to de facto Article 5 support. While Russia could storm into the DMZ, NATO could also storm into Western Ukraine or possibly even cross the Dnieper, whether due to a swift intervention or having already deployed its troops west of the river per tacit agreement with Russia.
What was detailed in the three preceding paragraphs is the maximum that Russia can realistically achieve given the new military-strategic circumstances in which it finds itself over 1,000 days since the specialoperation began. Putin finally started climbing the escalation ladder in order to deter the even greater provocations that the West might now be plotting with the intent of coercing him into freezing the existing LOC and then possibly accepting the deployment of Western/NATO peacekeepers there.
Such a scenario would be completely unacceptable for him from the perspective of Russia’s national security interests and his own reputational ones after promising to check NATO’s expansion in Ukraine. Keeping that bloc west of the Dnieper while demilitarizing everything east of it and north of the administrative borders of the four former Ukrainian regions that joined Russia in September 2022, tentatively known as the “Transdnieper” region, would be a tolerable compromise though.
Trump might deem this to be pragmatic enough of a deal for him to go along with since it could still be spun by all relevant parties to the conflict as a victory (e.g. Russia gained land and created a DMZ deep inside Ukraine; Ukraine continued to exist as a state; and the US de facto incorporated Western Ukraine into NATO). It could even enter into force prior to that if either side “escalates to de-escalate” before his inauguration and this is the “mutually face-saving” compromise that they reach to avoid World War III.
Of course, it would be better if they agree to this without sparking a Cuban-like brinksmanship crisis that risks spiraling out of control, hence why their diplomats should begin discussing it now or a third country’s ones like India’s should propose it behind the scenes to get the ball rolling. Putin’s newfound (and arguably long-overdue) approach signals that he won’t accept freezing the existing LOC, nor especially the deployment of NATO/Western peacekeepers there, and will escalate to avert that.
He might even go as far as using tactical nukes in Ukraine (and/or NATO’s logistics hub in Moldova) if he feels that he’s being cornered by the evolving circumstances in which the West might soon place him through its possibly forthcoming greater provocations (e.g. destabilizing and invading Belarus). The West must therefore start taking Putin seriously after he finally began climbing the escalation ladder otherwise the worst-case scenario of World War III might become unavoidable if they push him too far.
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The range of the missiles used by Russian fighter jets is considered a dangerous challenge for their NATO rivals. This is particularly true when it comes to the unrivaled R-37M hypersonic air-to-air missile with its staggering maximum engagement range of 400km.
Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst
Even before the start of Moscow’s counteroffensive against NATO aggression in Europe, Russia and its military were often denigrated and underestimated by the mainstream propaganda machine. This decades-old (or should we say centuries) practice has escalated dramatically since February 24 last year. The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) are particularly targeted, being presented as a supposed “failure” despite obliterating most of the Kiev regime’s air force in mere weeks. This is also illustrated by the Neo-Nazi junta’s desperate pleas and so-called “begmanding” to get fighter jets from NATO, including the US-made F-16, despite even the Ukrainian pilots themselves knowing they are vastly inferior to their own Soviet-era Su-27s.
Russian VKS dominates the skies over Ukraine with its state-of-the-art Su-35S and superfast, high-flying MiG-31. However, what caught the attention of NATO is the usage of Moscow’s next-generation Su-57, a platform that has essentially transcended the notion of so-called “fifth generation” aircraft. Being at the forefront of Russia’s investment in aviation technology, the jet is one of the world’s most advanced aircraft. Bristling with sensors, new advanced technologies and using the latest missiles and bombs, Su-57 can truly be defined as an “overkill” against the vastly outmatched Kiev regime’s air force. Its most important mission so far has been SEAD (suppression of enemy air defenses), most likely using Kh-59MK2 and Kh-31 cruise missiles, in addition to using its advanced electronic warfare capabilities.
However, it should be noted that aircraft such as the Su-25 attack/CAS (close air support), Su-30 multirole and Su-34 strike jets are the “bread and butter” of Russian VKS operations in Ukraine, conducting the vast majority of missions. These have been at the center of a targeted mainstream propaganda machine campaign, aiming to underestimate their performance and capabilities. And yet, the UK Ministry of Defense is rather unconvinced, as it has “expressed concern” with Moscow’s capabilities. Back in early January, the UK MoD confirmed the reports that Russian jets have managed to shoot down Kiev regime aircraft from ranges exceeding 200 kilometers, including with platforms such as the Su-57.
The “Felon’s” (NATO reporting name for Su-57) sensor suite of six AESA (active electronically scanned array) radars and advanced IRST (infrared search and track) systems allow it to simultaneously track more targets over extreme ranges than any other fighter jet in the world. And while the VKS operates only a dozen serial Su-57s, these have been a major force multiplier. The UK military is rather worried that “Felon’s” numbers have more than tripled since 2021 and are further expected to swell to 24 aircraft this year. Combined with the Su-35S and MiG-31, the Su-57 is a deadly challenge for NATO, according to the aforementioned January 2023 assessment by UK MoD that reported the fighters were “launching long-range air-to-surface and air-to-air missiles into Ukraine since at least June 2022”.
The range of the missiles used by the aforementioned Russian fighter jets is considered a dangerous challenge for their NATO rivals. This is particularly true when it comes to the unrivaled R-37M hypersonic air-to-air missile with its staggering maximum engagement range of 400km. It is precisely this missile that was most likely used in the record-breaking 217 km shoot-down, fired by either Su-35S or Su-57. Other UK outlets, such as The Conversation, have also reported that the UK military confirmed this in mid-February, stating that “the Russian MiG-31 and Su-57 operating the R-37M long-range hypersonic missile have engaged Ukrainian aircraft at a range of over 200 km from the safety of Russian airspace”, reluctantly admitting just how hopelessly outclassed the Kiev regime forces are.
The performance of the Su-57 is of particular concern for NATO. Its usage in Ukraine already made it the first and only next-generation fighter jet to engage in high-intensity operations. Of course, unless we count the decisive victory of the US Air Force F-22 “Raptor” over a Chinese weather balloon. However, in all seriousness, the USAF has operated fifth-generation aircraft for nearly 18 years, but it has never used them against advanced adversaries, as its aggression against the world is nearly always conducted against mostly helpless opponents. Although the Su-57 was also delayed for several years before it entered service, the Russian military used this time to ensure that the jet was as close to full readiness as it could possibly be, which is further reinforced by its combat use in Syria years before it was officially inducted.
Engaging and easily neutralizing formidable targets such as the Su-27, which, as previously mentioned, far exceeds the capabilities of US-made F-16 fighters, is a clear indicator of just how dangerous Russian jets are. In the case of Su-57, it also shows that the jet is not limited to an initial operating capability (IOC), despite its small numbers and having been inducted into service only 2 years ago. This stands in stark contrast to the best US/NATO jets, such as the F-22, which took years to reach IOC. This lasted for nearly five years before “Raptor” reached FOC (full operational capability). The case of the F-35 is even worse, as the troubled jet is yet to reach even IOC despite being in service for almost eight years now and nearly a quarter of a century since it made its first flight.
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Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst
Thalassocratic dominance is of prime significance for the North Atlantic Alliance, as its most powerful members are basing their power on naval supremacy. This is particularly true for the United States and the United Kingdom, both of which formed their empires by controlling key global sea routes. Maintaining this status, preferably expanding it or at least preventing other powers from acquiring it is the primary goal of the political West, especially in regard to (Eur)Asian giants such as Russia and China. Although Moscow and Beijing are traditionally seen as land powers, their naval might should not be taken for granted, as both superpowers are investing significant resources in developing and building new advanced vessels.
The Russian Navy, although smaller in comparison to the Soviet era, is still one of the world’s largest and most powerful. Moscow operates the world’s second most potent nuclear submarine fleet with the capability of wiping out virtually any adversary, including the US. In the aftermath of the USSR’s dismantlement, Russia reduced its reliance on large surface combatants and focused on building smaller vessels with relatively comparable long-range capabilities. This was made possible primarily due to massive advances in missile propulsion technologies, an area in which Moscow retains a significant advantage over its geopolitical rivals, nearly all of whom rely on naval power projection.
Realizing that large surface ships have been made effectively obsolete by the deployment of advanced anti-ship missiles, both supersonic and hypersonic, the Russian Navy made a decision to build smaller vessels that would have the capability to deploy the aforementioned advanced missiles and thus jeopardize much larger hostile capital ships such as aircraft carriers. These are especially relied on by NATO, primarily the US, which operates approximately a dozen carrier groups across the globe. The US Navy has the world’s largest fleet of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers (or more precisely, super-carriers), which are, as previously mentioned, essential for maintaining the political West’s global power projection.
Given NATO’s typical chest-thumping when it comes to its naval arm, it’s quite unusual that the belligerent alliance is alarmed by Russia’s recent deployment of a single frigate to the Atlantic. On January 4, an official ceremony was held before the Russian Navy’s “Admiral Gorshkov” frigate was sent from the Severomorsk port to the high seas. This is the surface combatant’s second long-distance voyage since it entered service in mid-2018. However, this deployment marks the first time in history that a ship is carrying officially operational hypersonic weapons. Equipped with up to 16 3M22 “Zircon” missiles, the Russian frigate is capable of wiping out an entire super-carrier strike group from a distance of 1000-1500 km.
“Admiral Gorshkov” is now reportedly sailing to join the Russian Navy’s operational group deployed in the Mediterranean, where it’s set to assume the role of a command vessel. According to various reports, after conducting the planned activities in the area, including docking in friendly ports such as Russia’s Tartus naval base in Syria, the frigate will proceed to the Red Sea and then into the Indian Ocean. With a displacement of 5,400 tons, the Project 22350 frigates (as per Russian naval nomenclature) are the first larger post-Soviet surface combatants designed and built for the Russian Navy, which currently operates two more vessels of this class, “Admiral Kasatonov” and “Admiral Golovko”.
The ships carry a plethora of multipurpose weapons, including the now legendary “Kalibr” cruise missiles, specifically the NK variant with a range of up to 4,500 km. However, the deployment of the 3M22 “Zircon” hypersonic cruise missile is what caused panic in NATO, as the scramjet-powered weapon is effectively in a league of its own, since no other navy in the world operates such missiles. “Zircon” has been fully operational at least since late 2022 and is set to be deployed on both surface ships and submarines. Numerous sea trials conducted by the Russian Navy in recent years have shown the weapon can reach a speed of Mach 9 (approximately 11,000 km/h or 3.1 km/s), although some claim it can go even faster. Various sources indicate that “Zircon” has a range of up to 2000 km, depending on the target.
To put its speed into perspective, when compared with the US-made “Tomahawk” subsonic cruise missile, “Zircon” is over twelve times faster, giving it a kinetic energy approximately 250 times greater than that of the American weapon. Reportedly, while “Admiral Gorshkov” deploys 16 “Zircon” missiles, newer ships of its class have been upgraded to carry 32. In addition, the Russian frigate is also armed with “Kalibr” cruise missiles, “Otvet” anti-submarine rockets, “Oniks” supersonic missiles, “Poliment-Redut” SAM (surface-to-air missile) system with 32 mid-range or 128 short-range missiles, “Paket-NK” torpedo system, 130 mm AK-192M “Armat” cannon and two “Palash” CIWS (close-in weapon system). The frigate also carries a single Ka-27PL ASW (anti-submarine warfare) helicopter.
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