Tag Archives: Belarus

Poland training militants to attack Belarus – newspaper

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NATO country proves to be involved in provocations against Russia’s ally.

 

Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant.

Once again, the evidence makes it clear that the West wants to involve Belarus in the current conflict. In a report published by The Times it was informed that exiled Belarusian militants are being trained in Polish territory in preparation for a future insurrection in their country. 

According to the newspaper, the “Bypol” group, an extremist dissident militia that actively participated in the attempted color revolution in 2020, is based in the Polish city of Poznan, where an intense military training program is being conducted. Journalists went to the field to interview some of the militiamen and reported that the number of recruits is already “in the hundreds”.

The program would have started many months ago, bringing together “common Belarusians” who want to give a response to President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s “Stalinesque campaign of torture and detention [that] has all but silenced dissent” in Minsk. To add credibility to this narrative, the paper interviewed an exiled woman involved in the training nicknamed “Predator”. The 42-year-old dissident explained that she is the mother of a child who is unaware that she is currently in a military program. The option for combat would apparently have been motivated by the need to “fight for Belarus”.

“My daughter doesn’t know I am here. I told her I was going paintballing (…) []However] I came here today (…) to prepare for the fight for Belarus”, “Predator” told journalists during an interview.

This is a well-known media strategy, widely used by western outlets. The objective is to use an emotionalrhetoric to show the supported side as a victim of oppression and an example of heroism and resilience. But for those who know what really happened in Belarus in 2020, this narrative is nothing more than a weak and meaningless fallacy.

The 2020 mass protests were the result of a Western plan to overthrow Lukashenko’s legitimate government and replace him with pro-Western opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Belarusian security forces were incisive in neutralizing the Western-sponsored threat, and, as in cases of failed regime change operations, the US regarded Lukashenko’s electoral victory as illegitimate and fraudulent, pointing to Lithuania-based Tikhanovskaya as the real winner.

At the time, the Bypol group was created, formed by several dissident former employees of law enforcement agencies. Bypol engaged in active militia work, physically fighting the security forces. The group alleges the supposed “necessity” to face the government’s “state violence”, receiving financial and logistical support from the western powers for this.

As a result of Lukashenko’s victory, most Bypol’smembers emigrated to neighboring countries hostile to Minsk, such as Poland, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania and the Czech Republic. This did not stop the group from operating sabotage and real combat missions on Belarusian soil, even carrying out a drone attack on a Russian A-50 radar at Machulishchy air base. However, Belarusian security forces closely monitor the militia’sactivities and have been effective in preventing further damage from being caused.

In practice, Bypol is an ordinary terrorist organization, which acts like any other extremist group in the world, using terror as a political tool and causing harm to ordinary civilians during its illegal raids. But the West has been openly pro-terror in recent years, being publicly involved in financing and supporting terrorist and neo-Nazi groups such as the Ukraine’s Azov, Right Sector and Aidar, which makes it unsurprising that it gives same support for Bypol. In fact, if the terrorists’ targets are NATO’s geopolitical enemies, then the criminals have “carte blanche” for their maneuvers.

The problem is that amidst the current scenario of tensions, any miscalculated act could lead to a serious escalation. Belarus has been the target of repeated terrorist attacks since the beginning of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. Minsk is involved in a secondary way in the operation, only allowing Russian troops to use its territory to enter the enemy country, without sending soldiers and weapons directly. The Belarusian attitude is legitimate, considering that Belarus and Russia maintain a collective defense treaty within the Union State, and therefore military actions are absolutely integrated.

This means that western provocations against Russia’s ally are likely to be responded to by Moscow itself. And, in the same sense, considering that these are NATO countries that are training, supporting and infiltrating terrorists in Belarus, the eventual joint response of Minsk and Moscow could even be directed against NATO, which would involve the risk of nuclear escalation.

This only makes it even more legitimate for Minsk to receive Russian nuclear weapons on its territory. Minsk is taking pre-preventive action to dissuade hostile countries from realizing their war plans against the Belarusian people in order to avoid further escalation, as the consequences could be catastrophic.

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Belarusian mercenaries fighting for Kiev to plan terrorist attacks against Minsk

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The objective may promote mutiny, boycott and terrorism operations against the local government, favoring Kiev-NATO’s interests.

Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant.

Sabotage operations may take place within the territory of the Republic of Belarus. According to information provided by an important Russian official, Belarusian mercenaries who are currently fighting for the Ukrainian side would be sent back to their homeland with the aim of planning mutiny, boycott and terrorism operations against the local government. The case makes even more evident the need for broad military cooperation between Moscow and Minsk.

The information was announced by Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Mikhail Galuzin. According to him, nationalist units in Ukraine formed by Belarusian mercenaries could send some of their members back to the country in order to incite domestic terror. Galuzin claims that these groups have broad military and intelligence support from the Ukrainian government and consequently from the western powers that sponsor Kiev. He also said that these groups are becoming increasingly “tougher”. So, considering this fact, complex, large-scale illegal operations could be planned.

Galuzin also mentioned that recently several leading neo-Nazis from Belarus have made it clear in public statements that they plan to use their combat experience in the Ukrainian conflict to fight against the government of Aleksandr Lukashenko. These plans obviously serve some of the main interests of the Western-Ukrainian axis, as Minsk is an ally of Moscow and both states have significantly advanced cooperation in all areas.

“Belarusian nationalist formations (…) – who are actively supported by the Kiev authorities and their Western backers have become significantly tougher (…) The leaders and commanders of those cut-throat mercenaries openly say that they plan, in the future, to apply their combat experience to topple the current Belarusian leadership”, he said during an interview to a Russian media outlet.

It is important to remember that recently several attacks have taken place against the people of Belarus and Minsk’s security forces. In addition to many incidents in the border region, with Ukrainian missiles hitting Belarusian territory and even causing the death of civilians, in February there was an attack with military drones against a Russian reconnaissance plane placed in Minsk. The responsibility for the act was claimed by the Association of Security Forces of Belarus, better known as “Bypol”, an anti-Lukashenko paramilitary organization, which, in addition to illegal activities in Belarus, constantly sends neo-Nazi volunteers to Ukraine.

Galuzin believes that these provocations were a way to “test” the defense capacity of the Belarusian forces, thus preparing for future large-scale incursions. He, however, expressed confidence that the Belarusian authorities will know how to solve the problem and prevent damage from being caused against the population. In fact, considering the advanced level of integration of the defense and security policies of Belarus and Russia, it is certain that Minsk, in addition to its own mechanisms, will also be able to count on the help of the wide intelligence apparatus of the Russian forces to detect any threats and prevent attacks.

It is curious how the Russian official’s report comes amid the current controversy about the legitimacy of the allocation of Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil. Even though the agreement was made bilaterally, respecting and prioritizing Minsk’s national interests, the Russian-Belarusian nuclear dialogue has been the target of disinformation campaigns promoted by the mainstream media and pro-NATO activists, who try to report the case as a kind of “Russian imperialism”.

Russia and Belarus are historically partner states, which share the same people, history and culture, and there is no reason for distrust in their bilateral relations. Both the government of Aleksandr Lukashenko and his foreign policy focused on cooperation with Moscow are widely supported by the majority of the population, as has already become evident with the absolute failure of all Western attempts to provoke riots and color revolution in the country.

So, in a context of constant global security crisis, with high risks of nuclear war, in addition to several external threats to the security of Belarus, with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics starting provocations on the borders, it is absolutely normal that cooperation is raised to the nuclear level – as this helps to guarantee Minsk’s sovereignty and protects the local population. Also, the fact that terrorist maneuvers are expected to happen in the country in the near future reinforces that all necessary measures to increase national security must be taken as soon as possible, including the nuclear deterrence power.

It is important to remember that Belarusian intelligence is aware of the Kiev-sponsored terrorist threat since last year, when a national anti-terrorist operation was launched, promoting the militarization of the borders, introducing the combat readiness of the troops and encouraging an exponential intensification of the military partnership with the Russians, both in terms of receiving troops from Moscow and in joint war exercises. In this period, several terrorist networks began to be monitored and saboteurs were neutralized before causing real harm to the people.

Regarding Belarusian fighters in Ukraine, it is most likely that Kiev is organizing attacks like the ones that recently took place in the Russian oblast of Bryansk, when some expatriate Russian neo-Nazi mercenaries assaulted the area and killed civilians. In the same sense, sabotage operations and assassination attempts against specific targets could also be being planned. However, despite the suffering caused to the victims of these confrontations, the military and political gains for the aggressor side are null, which is why Minsk, although at risk of incursions, does not have its sovereignty truly threatened.

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Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus – escalation or legitimate response?

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While the decision to send nuclear weapons to Belarus was officially made after the United Kingdom announced it would supply depleted uranium munitions to the Kiev regime, the actual reasoning might have to do with much more sinister plans by the United States.

Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

On March 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia will start deploying its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Construction of designated storage facilities for the weapons is planned to be completed by July 1. The decision to transfer nuclear weapons to Belarus was made after Minsk issued a formal request, essentially mirroring Washington DC’s nuclear sharing agreements with several NATO member states. And while the decision was officially made after the United Kingdom announced it would supply depleted uranium munitions to the Kiev regime, the actual reasoning might have to do with much more sinister plans by the United States.

Namely, Warsaw and Washington DC have been floating the idea of transferring some of the US nuclear weapons stockpiled in Europe to Poland. The move has been mentioned several times in recent years, including in early October last year, when Polish President Andrzej Duda mentioned it in an interview with Gazeta Polska. The US has nuclear sharing agreements with the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Italy and Turkey, with approximately 100 (mainly air-launched) tactical nuclear weapons deployed in all five countries. Greece also took part in the program, but discontinued its participation in 2001, although it’s widely believed Athens still keeps the necessary storage facilities functional.

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko advised against UK plans to deliver depleted uranium munitions to the Kiev regime and warned that Russia would soon supply Belarus with “munitions with real uranium”. However, Putin himself stated that “even outside the context of these events”, Belarus still has legitimate security concerns and that “Alexander Grigoryevich [Lukashenko] has long raised the question of deploying Russian tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus”. This clearly implies that threats to Minsk transcend the immediate danger of depleted uranium munitions deliveries to the Neo-Nazi junta in Kiev.

“There is nothing unusual in such a decision, as the United States has been doing this for decades. They have long placed their tactical nuclear weapons on the territories of their allies, NATO countries, and in Europe. In six states – the Federal Republic of Germany, Turkey, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy and Greece – well, not in Greece now, but there is still a storage facility,” Putin stressed, further adding: “[Russia and Belarus] will do the same, without violating our international obligations on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons”.

He added that Russia is indeed mirroring the United States in this regard and that it’s not transferring the ownership of its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, but that it’s simply deploying them to the country and training the Belarussian military to operate and use them in the case of a wider escalation by the US and NATO. The Russian military has already provided Belarus with the necessary upgrades to be able to deliver tactical nuclear warheads. At least 10 (presumably Belarussian Air Force) jets have been assigned and equipped to carry such weapons, although neither side specified what type of aircraft received the said upgrades.

Belarus operates several types of nuclear-capable fighter jets, including the recently acquired Su-30SM and the Soviet-era MiG-29. In addition to air-launched nuclear weapons, Russia already deploys ground-based assets in Belarus, including the “Iskander” systems capable of launching nuclear-tipped hypersonic and regular cruise missiles. Minsk also operates its own “Iskander” units, meaning that those too could be equipped with tactical nuclear warheads, further bolstering the country’s deterrence capabilities. This is particularly important as Belarus has also been targeted by US/NATO covert/black operations in recent years, including an attempted Maidan-style color revolution in 2020.

“We have handed over to Belarus our well-known and very effective ‘Iskander’ system that can carry [nuclear weapons],” Putin stated, adding: “On April 3, we will start training the crews and on July 1 we will complete the construction of a special storage [facility] for tactical nuclear weapons on the Belarussian territory.”

In addition to the “Iskander”, Belarus still maintains a number of Soviet-era nuclear-capable assets, including a substantial arsenal of “Tochka-U” tactical ballistic missiles. These could serve as a secondary delivery option given their shorter range and inferior accuracy when compared to the “Iskander” which boasts a 500 km range, high precision, extreme maneuverability at every stage of flight, as well as a hypersonic speed estimated to be at least Mach 5.9, although military sources indicate that it can go up to Mach 8.7. This makes the “Iskander” virtually impossible to intercept, as evidenced by its performance during the SMO (special military operation). The system also provides a significant advantage over NATO forces in Eastern Europe.

President Lukashenko strongly indicated that Minsk could host Russian nuclear weapons as soon as NATO implied it could deploy US B61 nuclear bombs to Poland, highlighting that his country’s Soviet-era infrastructure for such weapons remains intact despite US pressure to destroy it during the 1990s. Belarus is home to a growing arsenal of state-of-the-art Russian military units and equipment, including strategic assets such as the S-400 SAM (surface-to-air missile) systems, as well as the advanced Su-35S air superiority fighter jets and MiG-31 interceptors, including the K/I variants capable of deploying the already legendary “Kinzhal” hypersonic missiles, which are also nuclear-capable.

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Tensions between Poland and Belarus on the rise

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Despite it, Lukashenko’s offer to act as a mediator in Ukrainian conflict should be taken seriously by Washington.

Uriel Araujo, researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts

The Polish authorities in Warsaw announced they have closed border checkpoints in Bobrowniki in response to the fact that a Minsk’s court sentenced a Polish activist to 8 years in jail over charges pertaining to inciting hate. The ruling took place after months of mass protests in Belarus, and Poland believes the sentence is politically motivated. Other checkpoints had already been closed over alleged security concerns. Minsk has described the Polish measures as “catastrophic”, claiming it could “lead to a collapse on both sides of the border”. It will increase the load on the remaining two checkpoints, where there already are very long lines.

I have written before on the very real migration crisis which Europe has been facing and on how the role Belarus plays on it is exaggerated to hypocritically demonize that state. There have been, in any case, a number of tragic deaths at the Poland-Belarus border in the context of such a crisis.

Two weeks ago, Polish authorities busted a criminal organization involved in a huge smuggling operation. This is a police matter, but, in the context of a political crisis, the fact can certainly be explored to add fuel to the fire.

The main border concern here however pertains to the conflict. Belarus forces are “ready to fulfill any tasks, including the most difficult ones if we have to”, according to Vadim Lukashevich, deputy commander of the Special Operations Forces of Belarus. Troops outside the city of Brest run drills lust week near the 38th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade. These exercises took place 50 kilometers from Ukraine and just two miles (four kilometers) from the border with Poland, a EU and NATO member. Belarus has been hosting a number of Russian troops, but President Alexander Lukashenko has stated he will not send his own forces to Ukraine. It is estimated his country possesses about 70,000 troops.

Although some journalists often describe Belarus as a “Russian puppet state”, the truth is that both countries’ relationship is much more complex and nuanced. In any case, Minsk has historically cultivated close bilateral relations with Moscow. It stands in a complicated position, “sandwiched” between republics such as Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine itself – all of them hostile to Russia and to itself.  In July 2022 Lukashenko claimed Kiev had tried to attack his country, with the missiles supposedly launched having being neutralized just in time by his armed forces. Ukraine could in fact benefit from draggin Belarus into the conflict, in the hope that this would force a direct Western intervention – however, it could also backfire, with disastrous results, in case the West does not act as expected.

The conflict in Ukraine has been part of a Western proxy war against Russia and, in spite of historical Polish-Ukrainian disagreements (worsened by post-Maidan Ukrainian ultranationalism), Warsaw has been a strong supporter of Kiev against Moscow. Even before the current conflict, both neighboring nations actively opposed the Russian-German Nord Stream 2 project (which in fact could have avoided today’s energy crisis in Europe). Moreover, Poland has antagonized Germany over the same issue, while also pressuring Berlin to send tanks to Ukraine. This is part of Poland’s American-backed quest for regional leadership, as Washington seems to have become “fed up” with its German partner over the Nord Stream issue.

To make things more complicated, Poland and Ukraine are near a confederation, which can only increase even more the risk of bringing NATO’s direct involvement into the latter.

Although Minsk’s defensive exercises have been described by Western media as aggressive provocations, President Lukashenko has urged his American counterpart to go to Minsk, Belarus, in a joint meeting with himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin to “end the war”. It remains to be seen how long Belarus can manage to refrain from directly taking part into the current conflict, amid an escalation of tensions.

During Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington in December 2022, he and Biden took part in a joint press conference. During it, Biden said more potent weapons will not be sent to Ukraine because it “would have a prospect of breaking up NATO”. In addition, the American leader remarked that his Atlantic allies are “not looking to go to war with Russia. They’re not looking for a third world war.”

Ukrainian and Western actions for the last couple of years have been characterized by dangerous moves (such as crossing red lines) and provocations. While the US profits in a number of ways from making the Ukrainian conflict perpetual and from the resulting European energy crisis, it has no intention to escalate things into a world war, as Biden aforementioned remarks make clear.

The problem with escalations of tensions, as I wrote before, is that they may have quite unintended and unpredictable consequences – and those in turn can always spiral out of control – as both world wars have taught us. Before reaching a point of no return, Washington should establish good diplomacy, exercise restraint and stop its dual containment policy, which dangerously aims at “containing” both Moscow and Beijing at the same time.

In light of that, Lukashenko’s invitation should be taken seriously. Unfortunately, there is no indication it will be.

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